Measuring FOS progress, Part 2
Free Online Scholarship (FOS) Newsletter
September 15, 2002
by Peter Suber
Here's a less objective approach.  Imagine a coordinate plane.  The x axis represents general acceptance or rejection.  The y axis represents friendliness or unfriendliness to FOS.  To plot something in quadrant I (upper right) is to say that it is both accepted and friendly to FOS.  The further it is to the right, the more it is accepted or entrenched, and the higher up it is, the more favorable it is to FOS.

We can use the plane to plot the significance of a development to FOS.  For convenience, let's put an upper limit of 10 and lower limit of -10 on the values of x and y.  But at the same time let's admit that the exact coordinates for a given development will be somewhat arbitrary and subjective.  For example, is self-archiving by researchers more like <3, 10> (more accepted than rejected but very friendly) or more like <-3, 10> (more rejected than accepted but very friendly)?  Is open access after a six month delay more like <3, 5> (somewhat accepted, moderately friendly) or more like <3, -2> (somewhat accepted, somewhat unfriendly)?

If you really draw the plane, plot the points, and replot them periodically, then progress will be shown by the movement of points into the upper right and lower left quadrants.  Above the x axis, the further to the right the better, and below it, the further to the left the better.  If there's a cloud of points in either the upper right or lower left quadrants, that's good.  If there's a cloud of points in either of the other two quadrants, that's bad, even if the exact positions within the quadrants are arbitrary and subjective.  For many purposes it will enough to classify items by quadrant without assigning specific coordinates.

We can reduce some of the subjectivity by comparing our values with others or by voting for values as a group.  But in my examples below, I didn't have time for either precaution.  Hence, I've given quadrants without coordinates.  I didn't want my own subjective evaluations to trigger distracting or divisive quarrels. Moreover, I'm less committed to any particular set of numbers than to the way this plot, when done with more care or communal input, can give us a useful overview of where we stand.  If others agree, then another way to reduce subjectivity is for interested users to tighten my loose definitions of the two axes.

I can imagine a third dimension or z axis measuring effectiveness or impact, but I won't add that layer of complexity to this sketch.

* Here's how I'd plot a dozen or so initiatives and developments in quadrant I (upper right):  accepted and friendly to FOS.

arXiv
BioMed Central
Budapest Open Access Initiative
Creative Commons
Deep linking
Delayed free access (embargo period)
Digital libraries
Eprints software
Open Archives Initiative
Public Library of Science
Self-archiving by researchers
SPARC
Tiered journal pricing for developing countries
Tradition of scholars not demanding payment for research articles

* Here are some items I'd place in quadrant II (upper left):  generally rejected but friendly to FOS.

Government willingness to require open-access publication of research results as a condition for grants
Journal willingness to let authors retain copyright
Endowments for open-access journals
First-sale doctrine for digital content
University willingness to pay for outgoing articles rather than incoming articles

* Here are some items I'd place in quadrant III (lower left):  generally rejected, unfriendly to FOS.

Compulsory web filters in schools and libraries
Overt censorship of scholarly literature

* Finally, here are some items I'd place in quadrant IV (lower right):  accepted or common, but unfriendly to FOS.

Compulsory web filters in certain nations
Copyright extension (e.g. Bono Act)
Cross-border censorship
Digital divide (maldistribution of hardware, software, connectivity)
DMCA anti-circumvention clause
DRM
High prices for journals
Licensing terms that waive fair-use rights
Publisher consolidation, monopoly

* Exercise:  Where would you put the following:  "declarations of independence" (in which journal editors leave a recalcitrant publisher in order to relaunch a similar but open-access journal with another publisher), digital preservation initiatives, DOI's, ebooks, free and open source software, Google, GPL, grid computing, the Ingelfinger rule, reference linking, the semantic web, UCITA, and WIPO?


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The Free Online Scholarship Newsletter is supported by a grant from the Open Society Institute.
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Peter Suber's page of related information, including the newsletter editorial position
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/index.htm

Newsletter, archived back issues
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/newsletter/archive.htm

Forum, archived postings
https://mx2.arl.org/Lists/SOA-Forum/List.html

Conferences Related to the Open Access Movement
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/conf.htm

Timeline of the Open Access Movement
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/timeline.htm

Open Access Overview
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/overview.htm

Open Access News blog
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/fosblog.html

Peter Suber
http://www.earlham.edu/~peters
peter.suber@earlham.edu

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