Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?

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Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?

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Title: Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?
Author: Campbell, John; Mankiw, Gregory

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987. Are output fluctuations transitory?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4): 857-880.
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Abstract: According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon.
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884285
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3122545

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  • FAS Scholarly Articles [7103]
    Peer reviewed scholarly articles from the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University
 
 

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