Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?

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Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?

Show simple item record Campbell, John Mankiw, Gregory 2009-06-26T19:16:14Z 1987
dc.identifier.citation Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987. Are output fluctuations transitory?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4): 857-880. en
dc.identifier.issn 0033-5533 en
dc.description.abstract According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon. en
dc.description.sponsorship Economics en
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher MIT Press en
dc.relation.isversionof en
dash.license LAA
dc.title Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? en
dc.relation.journal Quarterly Journal of Economics en Campbell, John

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