An Easier Way to Calibrate

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An Easier Way to Calibrate

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Title: An Easier Way to Calibrate
Author: Fudenberg, Drew; Levine, David

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Citation: Fudenberg, Drew, and David K. Levine. 1999. An easier way to calibrate. Games and Economic Behavior 29(1-2): 131-137.
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Abstract: Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “K-initialized myopic strategies” are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize” by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t, the minmax strategy in a static game.
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