When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference

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When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference

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Title: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference
Author: King, Gary; Zeng, Langche

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. 2007. When can history be our guide? The pitfalls of counterfactual inference. International Studies Quarterly 51(1): 183-210.
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Abstract: Inferences about counterfactuals are essential for prediction, answering "what if" questions, and estimating causal effects. However, when the counterfactuals posed are too far from the data at hand, conclusions drawn from well-specified statistical analyses become based on speculation and convenient but indefensible model assumptions rather than empirical evidence. Unfortunately, standard statistical approaches assume the veracity of the model rather than revealing the degree of model-dependence, and so this problem can be hard to detect. We develop easy-to-apply methods to evaluate counterfactuals that do not require sensitivity testing over specified classes of models. If an analysis fails the tests we offer, then we know that substantive results are sensitive to at least some modeling choices that are not based on empirical evidence. We use these methods to evaluate the extensive scholarly literatures on the effects of changes in the degree of democracy in a country (on any dependent variable) and separate analyses of the effects of UN peacebuilding efforts. We find evidence that many scholars are inadvertently drawing conclusions based more on modeling hypotheses than on their data. For some research questions, history contains insufficient information to be our guide.
Published Version: doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00445.x
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4214909

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  • FAS Scholarly Articles [8087]
    Peer reviewed scholarly articles from the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University

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