On the epidemiology of influenza

DSpace/Manakin Repository

On the epidemiology of influenza

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Cannell, John J
dc.contributor.author Zasloff, Michael
dc.contributor.author Garland, Cedric F
dc.contributor.author Scragg, Robert
dc.contributor.author Giovannucci, Edward L.
dc.date.accessioned 2011-05-10T00:18:56Z
dc.date.issued 2008
dc.identifier.citation Cannell, John J., Michael Zasloff, Cedric F. Garland, Robert Scragg, and Edward Giovannucci. 2008. On the epidemiology of influenza. Virology Journal 5: 29. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1743-422X en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4885951
dc.description.abstract The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1) Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2) Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3) Why do they end so abruptly? (4) What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5) Why is the serial interval obscure? (6) Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7) Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8) Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9) Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher BioMed Central en_US
dc.relation.isversionof doi:10.1186/1743-422X-5-29 en_US
dc.relation.hasversion http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2279112/pdf/ en_US
dash.license LAA
dc.title On the epidemiology of influenza en_US
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.description.version Version of Record en_US
dc.relation.journal Virology Journal en_US
dash.depositing.author Giovannucci, Edward L.
dc.date.available 2011-05-10T00:18:56Z
dash.affiliation.other HMS^Medicine-Brigham and Women's Hospital en_US
dash.affiliation.other SPH^Nutrition en_US

Files in this item

Files Size Format View
2279112.pdf 318.9Kb PDF View/Open

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

 
 

Search DASH


Advanced Search
 
 

Submitters