Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting

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Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting

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Title: Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting
Author: Weitzman, Martin L.
Citation: Weitzman, Martin L. 2009. Additive damages, fat-tailed climate dynamics, and uncertain discounting. Economics 3:2009-39.
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Abstract: This paper in applied theory argues that there is a loose chain of reasoning connecting the following three basic links in the economics of climate change: 1) additive disutility damages may be appropriate for analyzing some impacts of global warming; 2) an uncertain feedback-forcing coefficient, which might be near one with infinitesimal probability, can cause the distribution of the future time trajectory of global temperatures to have fat tails and a high variance; 3) when high-variance additive damages are discounted at an uncertain rate of pure time preference, which might be near zero with infinitesimal probability, it can make expected present discounted disutility very large. Some possible implications for welfare analysis and climate-change policy are briefly noted.
Published Version: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2009-39
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:9639963

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  • FAS Scholarly Articles [7262]
    Peer reviewed scholarly articles from the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University
 
 

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