A Physiological Trait-Based Approach To Predicting The Responses Of Species To Experimental Climatic Warming

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A Physiological Trait-Based Approach To Predicting The Responses Of Species To Experimental Climatic Warming

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dc.contributor.author Ellison, Aaron M.
dc.contributor.author Diamond, Sarah E.
dc.contributor.author Nichols, Lauren M.
dc.contributor.author McCoy, Neil
dc.contributor.author Hirsch, Christopher
dc.contributor.author Pelini, Shannon Lynn
dc.contributor.author Sanders, Nathan J.
dc.contributor.author Gotelli, Nicholas J.
dc.contributor.author Dunn, Robert R.
dc.date.accessioned 2012-10-12T15:52:04Z
dc.date.issued 2012
dc.identifier.citation Diamond, Sarah E., Lauren M. Nichols, Neil McCoy, Christopher Hirsch, Shannon L. Pelini, Nathan J. Sanders, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, and Robert R. Dunn. Forthcoming. A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climatic warming. Ecology. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0012-9658 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:9723074
dc.description.abstract Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species-level responses to climatic change. Here, we used species-specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest-floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance versus correlative species distribution models (SDMs) which are popular forecasting tools for modeling the effects of climatic change. Thermal tolerances predicted the responses of 19 ant species to experimental climatic warming at the southern site, where environmental conditions are relatively close to the ants' upper thermal limits. In contrast, thermal tolerances did not predict the responses of the 6 species in the northern site, where environmental conditions are relatively far from the ants' upper thermal limits. Correlative SDMs were not predictive at either site. Our results suggest that, in environments close to a species' physiological limits, physiological trait-based measurements can successfully forecast the responses of species to future conditions. Although correlative SDMs may predict large-scale responses, such models may not be accurate for predicting site-level responses. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Organismic and Evolutionary Biology en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Ecological Society of America en_US
dc.relation.isversionof doi:10.1890/11-2296.1 en_US
dash.license LAA
dc.subject critical thermal maximum en_US
dc.subject global change en_US
dc.subject Formicidae en_US
dc.subject physiology en_US
dc.subject thermal tolerance en_US
dc.subject species distribution model en_US
dc.title A Physiological Trait-Based Approach To Predicting The Responses Of Species To Experimental Climatic Warming en_US
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.description.version Accepted Manuscript en_US
dc.relation.journal Ecology en_US
dash.depositing.author Ellison, Aaron M.
dc.date.available 2012-10-12T15:52:04Z

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  • FAS Scholarly Articles [7501]
    Peer reviewed scholarly articles from the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University

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