Now showing items 1-20 of 24

    • Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Economics, 2009)
      This paper in applied theory argues that there is a loose chain of reasoning connecting the following three basic links in the economics of climate change: 1) additive disutility damages may be appropriate for analyzing ...
    • Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality? 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (University of Chicago Press, 2014)
      It is difficult to resolve the global warming free-rider externality problem by negotiating n different quantity targets. By contrast, negotiating a single internationally binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from ...
    • Climate change: Insurance for a warming planet 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Springer Nature, 2010)
    • Determining Benefits and Costs for Future Generations 

      Arrow, K.; Cropper, M.; Gollier, C.; Groom, B.; Heal, G.; Newell, R.; Nordhaus, W.; Pindyck, R.; Pizer, W.; Portney, P.; Sterner, T.; Tol, R. S. J.; Weitzman, Martin L. (American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2013)
      In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with ...
    • Economic Profitability Versus Ecological Entropy 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 2000)
      There is a long-standing trade-off in bioculture between concentrating on high-yield varieties and maintaining sufficient diversity to lower the risks of catastrophic infection. The paper uses a simple ecology-based model ...
    • Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (American Economic Association, 2014)
      At high enough greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change might conceivably cause catastrophic damages with small but non-negligible probabilities. If the bad tail of climate damages is sufficiently fat, and if the ...
    • Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2011)
      In this article, I revisit some basic issues concerning structural uncertainty and catastrophic climate change. My target audience here are general economists, so this article could also be viewed as a somewhat less technical ...
    • GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing), 2012)
      A critical issue in climate change economics is the specification of the so-called “damages function” and its interaction with the unknown uncertainty of catastrophic outcomes. This paper asks how much we might be misled ...
    • How should the distant future be discounted when discount rates are uncertain? 

      Gollier, Christian; Weitzman, Martin L. (Elsevier BV, 2010)
      The so-called “Weitzman–Gollier puzzle” is the fact that two seemingly symmetric and equally plausible ways of dealing with uncertain future discount rates appear to give diametrically opposed results. The puzzle is resolved ...
    • On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 2009)
      With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain ...
    • A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Springer Science + Business Media, 2013)
      Suppose that there is a probability density function for how bad things might get, but that the overall rate at which this probability density function slims down to approach zero in the tail is uncertain. The paper shows ...
    • Pricing the Limits to Growth from Minerals Depletion 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1999)
      This paper evaluates the loss of global welfare from exhaustion of nonrenewable resources, such as oil. The underlying methodology represents an empirical application of some recent developments in the theory of green ...
    • The Ramsey Discounting Formula for a Hidden-State Stochastic Growth Process 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Springer-Verlag, 2012)
      The long term discount rate is critically dependent upon projections of future growth rates that are fuzzier in proportion to the remoteness of the time horizon. This paper models such increasing fuzziness as an evolving ...
    • Recombinant Growth 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1998)
      This paper attempts to provide microfoundations for the knowledge production function in an idea-based growth model. Production of new ideas is made a function of newly reconfigured old ideas in the spirit of the way an ...
    • Revisiting Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Climate Change 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Oxford Journals, 2011)
      In this article, I revisit some basic issues concerning structural uncertainty and catastrophic climate change. My target audience here are general economists, so this article could also be viewed as a somewhat less technical ...
    • Risk-adjusted gamma discounting 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Elsevier BV, 2010)
      It is widely recognized that the economics of distant-future events, like climate change, is critically dependent upon the choice of a discount rate. Unfortunately, it is unclear how to discount distant-future events when ...
    • Should Governments Use a Declining Discount Rate in Project Analysis? 

      Arrow, Kenneth J.; Cropper, Maureen L.; Gollier, Christian; Groom, Ben; Heal, Geoffrey M.; Newell, Richard G.; Nordhaus, William D.; Pindyck, Robert S; Pizer, William A.; Portney, Paul R.; Sterner, Thomas; Tol, Richard S. J.; Weitzman, Martin L. (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2014)
      Should governments use a discount rate that declines over time when evaluating the future benefits and costs of public projects? The argument for using a declining discount rate (DDR) is simple: if the discount rates that ...
    • Some Basic Economics of Climate Change 

      Weitzman, Martin L. (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2009)
      Climate change is characterized by deep structural uncertainty in the science cou- pled with an economic inability to evaluate meaningfully the welfare losses from high temperature changes. The probability of a disastrous ...