Person:

Willett, Walter

We evaluated predictors of plasma concentrations of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), a metabolite of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a group of 240 women, controls from a breast cancer case-control study nested in the Nurses' Health Study. We considered personal attributes such as age, serum cholesterol, region of residence, adiposity, lactation, and dietary intake. DDE levels increased 0.17 ppb/year of age ((p) = 0.0003), and PCBs increased 0.08 ppb ((p) = 0.0001). DDE and PCBs increased 0.20 ((p) = 0.02) and 0.13 ppb ((p) = 0.001), respectively, per 10 mg/dl serum cholesterol. Women living in the western United States had higher levels of DDE (mean = 11.0 ppb; (p) = 0.003), and women in the Northeast and Midwest had higher levels of PCBs (mean = 5.6 ppb; (p) = 0.0002) as compared to women from other parts of the country (mean DDE = 6.3; mean PCBs = 4. 5 ppb). Levels of DDE could not be predicted from consumption of meat, fish, poultry, dairy products, vegetables, fruits, and grains. There was a positive association between fish consumption and PCB concentrations among women in the Northeast and Midwest. Using data from the cases in the nested case-control study to assess the predictive ability of the models, we confirmed that the most reliable predictors of DDE were age and serum cholesterol, and the most important predictors of PCBs were age, serum cholesterol, and residence in the Midwest or Northeast. The null results for the majority of the food variables suggest that specific dietary factors, other than fish, are not currently a substantial contributor to human exposure to DDE and PCBs.

In a 1981 review, Doll and Peto estimated that approximately 35% of cancer deaths in the United States were potentially avoidable by the modification of diet but that this percentage might be as low as 10% or as high as 70%. Since that time, the epidemiologic literature on diet and cancer has grown greatly, as has understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. In general, this expanded literature has not provided reason to alter the Doll and Peto estimate substantially. For colon cancer, evidence has accumulated that some of the international differences that were attributed to diet are probably due to physical activity. For breast cancer, the concept that fat intake per se is the primary reason for differences in rates among countries has not been supported by prospective studies. Although several lines of evidence suggest that caloric restriction and slow growth rates may contribute importantly to the low rates of breast cancer found outside Western countries, this may not translate directly to practical means of prevention. In contrast to breast cancer, more recent data have supported a causative role for red meat in the development of colon and prostate cancers, although perhaps not entirely due to its fat content. Whereas earlier thinking about nutrition and cancer emphasized the adverse effects of fat and other components in the diet, the most compelling evidence of the last decade has indicated the importance of protective factors, largely unidentified, in fruits and vegetables. Considering the more recent evidence, it is roughly estimated that about 32% of cancer may be avoidable by changes in diet; however, it now seems unlikely that less than 20% or more than 42% of cancer deaths would be avoidable by dietary change.

Melanoma has been increasing in white populations. Incidence rates rise steeply in women until about age 50, suggesting oestrogen as a possible risk factor. Oestrogens can increase melanocyte count and melanin content and cause hyperpigmentation of the skin. We examined prospectively the association between oral contraceptive (OC) use and diagnoses of superficial spreading and nodular melanoma among 183 693 premenopausal white women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS)and the Nurses' Health Study Il (NHS II) cohorts. One hundred and forty six cases were confirmed in NHS during follow-up from 1976 to 1994, and 106 cases were confirmed in NHS II from 1989 to 1995. Skin reaction to sun exposure, sunburn history. mole counts, hair colour, family history of melanoma, parity, height and body mass index were also assessed and included in logistic regression models. A significant twofold increase in risk of melanoma (relative risk (RR) = 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23.4) was observed among current OC users compared to never users. Risk was further increased among current users with 10 or more years of use (RR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.7-7.0). Risk did not appear elevated among past OC users, even among those with longer durations of use, and risk did not decline linearly with time since last use. In conclusion, risk of premenopausal melanoma may be increased among women who are current OC users, particularly among those with longer durations of use. Further research is needed to determine whether low-dose oestrogen pills in particular are associated with an increase in risk and to describe possible interactions between OC use and sun exposure or other risk factors for melanoma.

Background To examine prospectively the association between self-reported symptoms of phobic anxiety and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease, a 2-year follow-up study was conducted of a cohort of 33 999 US male health professionals, aged 42 to 77 years in 1988, who were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease at baseline. Levels of phobic anxiety were assessed using the Crown-Crisp index, a short, diagnostic self-rating scale used for common phobias. Main outcomes were incidents of coronary heart disease consisting of nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD).Methods and Results One hundred sixty-eight incident cases of CHD occurred during 2 years of follow-up (128 cases of nonfatal MI and 40 cases of fatal CHD). The age-adjusted relative risk of fatal CHD among men with highest levels of phobic anxiety (scoring 4 or higher on the Crown-Crisp index) was 3.01 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 6.90) compared with men with the lowest levels of anxiety (scoring 0 or 1 on the phobia index). Risk of fatal CHD increased with levels of phobic anxiety (P trend=.002). When fatal CHD was further categorized into sudden and nonsudden coronary death, the excess risk was confined to sudden death (relative risk among men scoring 3 or higher on the phobia index was 6.08; 95% confidence interval, 2.35 to 15.73). No association was found between phobic anxiety and risk of nonfatal MI. These findings remained essentially unchanged after adjusting for a broad range of cardiovascular risk factors.Conclusions The specificity, strength, and dose-response gradient of the association, together with the consistency and biological plausibility of the experimental and epidemiologic evidence, support a strong causal association between phobic anxiety and fatal CHD.