Person:

Willett, Walter

OBJECTIVE: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was related to an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance in several recent studies among middle- or older-aged populations. Studies on SSB consumption and glucose intolerance among pregnant women, however, are lacking. We therefore examined the association between regular SSB consumption before pregnancy and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a prospective study among 13,475 U.S. women who reported at least one singleton pregnancy between 1992 and 2001 in the Nurses' Health Study II. GDM was self-reported and validated by medical record review in a subsample. Cox proportional hazards models with multivariate adjustments were applied to examine the association of SSB consumption with GDM risk. RESULTS: During 10 years of follow-up, 860 incident GDM case subjects were identified. After adjustment for age, parity, race, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, prepregnancy BMI, and Western dietary pattern, intake of sugar-sweetened cola was positively associated with the risk of GDM, whereas no significant association was found for other SSBs and diet beverages. Compared with women who consumed <1 serving/month, those who consumed ≥5 servings/week of sugar-sweetened cola had a 22% greater GDM risk (relative risk 1.22 [95% CI 1.01–1.47]). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study suggest that prepregnancy higher consumption of sugar-sweetened cola (≥5 servings/week) is associated with an elevated GDM risk, whereas no significant association with GDM risk was observed for other SSBs and diet beverages.

While the association of a number of risk factors, such as family history and reproductive patterns, with breast cancer has been well established for many years, work in the past 10–15 years also has added substantially to our understanding of disease etiology. Contributions of particular note include the delineation of the role of endogenous and exogenous estrogens to breast cancer risk, and the discovery and quantification of risk associated with several gene mutations (e.g. BRCA1). Although it is difficult to integrate all epidemiologic data into a single biologic model, it is clear that several important components or pathways exist. Early life events probably determine both the number of susceptible breast cells at risk and whether mutations occur in these cells. High endogenous estrogens are well established as an important cause of breast cancer, and many known risk factors appear to operate through this pathway. Estrogens (and probably other growth factors) appear to accelerate the development of breast cancer at many points along the progression from early mutation to tumor metastasis, and appear to be influential at many points in a woman's life. These data now provide a basis for a number of strategies that can reduce risk of breast cancer, although some strategies represent complex decision-making. Together, the modification of nutritional and lifestyle risk factors and the judicious use of chemopreventive agents could have a major impact on breast cancer incidence. Further research is needed in many areas, but a few specific arenas are given particular mention.

Background: Magnesium is associated with lower risk of sudden cardiac death, possibly through antiarrhythmic mechanisms. Magnesium influences endothelial function, inflammation, blood pressure, and diabetes, but a direct relation with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk has not been established. Methods and Results: We prospectively examined the association between dietary and plasma magnesium and risk of CHD among women in the Nurses' Health Study. The association for magnesium intake was examined among 86 323 women free of disease in 1980. Information on magnesium intake and lifestyle factors was ascertained every 2 to 4 years through questionnaires. Through 2008, 3614 cases of CHD (2511 nonfatal/1103 fatal) were documented. For plasma magnesium, we conducted a nested case–control analysis, with 458 cases of incident CHD (400 nonfatal/58 fatal) matched to controls (1:1) on age, smoking, fasting status, and date of blood sampling. Higher magnesium intake was not associated with lower risk of total CHD (P‐linear trend=0.12) or nonfatal CHD (P‐linear trend=0.88) in multivariable models. However, magnesium intake was inversely associated with risk of fatal CHD. The RR comparing quintile 5 to quintile 1 of magnesium intake was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.84; P‐linear trend=0.003). The association between magnesium intake and risk of fatal CHD appeared to be mediated partially by hypertension. Plasma magnesium levels above 2.0 mg/dL were associated with lower risk of CHD, although not independent of other cardiovascular biomarkers (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.04). Conclusions: Dietary and plasma magnesium were not associated with total CHD incidence in this population of women. Dietary magnesium intake was inversely associated with fatal CHD, which may be mediated in part by hypertension.

Objective: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased risks of several types of cancer; however, its relationship to renal cell cancer remains unclear. Research Design and Methods: A total of 118,177 women aged 30 to 55 years at baseline (1976) were followed up through 2008 in the Nurses’ Health Study. Self-reports of physician-diagnosed diabetes were collected at baseline and updated biennially. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for age, BMI, hypertension, smoking, and parity. Results: During 32 years of follow-up (3,531,170 person-years), 16,819 cases of type 2 diabetes and 330 cases of pathology-confirmed incident renal cell cancer were documented. After multivariate adjustment, type 2 diabetes was significantly associated with an increased risk of renal cell cancer (HR 1.60 [95% CI 1.19–2.17]). These associations were consistent across different strata of BMI, smoking, and hypertension ((P_{interaction} \geq 0.32)). The risk of renal cell cancer increased with an increasing number of comorbidities, including obesity, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes ((P_{trend} < 0.001)). When compared with women without any comorbidity, women who had all three conditions had a HR of 4.13 (2.76–6.18) for renal cell cancer. Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes is independently associated with an increased risk of renal cell cancer in women. In addition, comorbidity of obesity, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes substantially elevates the risk of renal cell cancer.

Background: Vitamin D status and levels of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 and C-peptide have been implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis. However, in contrast to vitamin D IGF-1 is not an easily modifiable risk factor. Methods: Combining data from the Health Professionals Follow up Study (HPFS) and the Nurses' Health Study cohort (NHS) additive and multiplicative interactions were examined between plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and IGF-1, IGFBP-3 as well as C-peptide levels in 499 cases and 992 matched controls. For the various analytes, being high or low was based on being either above (or equal) or below the medians, respectively. Results: Compared to participants with high 25(OH)D and low IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio (reference group), participants with a high IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio were at elevated risk of colorectal cancer when 25(OH)D was low (odds ratio (OR): 2.05 (95% CI: 1.43 to 2.92), but not when 25(OH)D was high (OR:1.20 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.71, p(interaction): additive = 0.06, multiplicative = 0.25). Similarly, compared to participants with high 25(OH)D and low molar IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio and low C-peptide levels (reference group), participants with a combination of either high IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio or high C-peptide were at elevated risk for colorectal cancer when 25(OH)D was low (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.94) but not when 25(OH)D was high (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.77, p(interaction): additive = 0.004; multiplicative = 0.04). Conclusion: The results from this study suggest that improving vitamin D status may help lower risk of colorectal cancer associated with higher IGF-1/IGFBP-3 ratio or C-peptide levels.

Healthy diets may lower oxidative stress and risk of chronic diseases. However, no previous studies examined associations between diet and fluorescent oxidation products (FlOP), a global marker of oxidative stress. We evaluated associations between healthy eating patterns (Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and Alternate Mediterranean Diet (aMED)) and FlOP, measured at three excitation/emission wavelengths (FlOP_360, FlOP_320, FlOP_400) from 2021 blood samples collected from 1688 women within the Nurses’ Health Study. AHEI, DASH, and aMED scores were significantly positively associated with FlOP_360 and FlOP_320 concentrations (p-trend ≤ 0.04), but not associated with FlOP_400. Among specific food groups that contribute to these diet scores, significantly positive associations were observed with legumes and vegetables for FlOP_360, vegetables and fruits for FlOP_320, and legumes and alcohol for FlOP_400. Inverse associations were observed with nuts, sweets or desserts, and olive oil for FlOP_360, nuts for FlOP_320 and sweets or desserts for FlOP_400 (all p-trend ≤ 0.05). However, FlOP variation due to diet was small compared to overall FlOP variation. In conclusion, AHEI, DASH, and aMED scores were unexpectedly positively, but weakly, associated with FlOP_360 and FlOP_320. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously as the determinants of FlOP concentrations are not fully understood.

Background: The impact of dietary flavonoid intakes on risk of depression is unclear. Objective: We prospectively examined associations between estimated habitual intakes of dietary flavonoids and depression risk. Design: We followed 82,643 women without a previous history of depression at baseline from the Nurses’ Health Study [(NHS) aged 53–80 y] and the Nurses’ Health Study II [(NHSII) aged 36–55 y]. Intakes of total flavonoids and subclasses (flavonols, flavones, flavanones, anthocyanins, flavan-3-ols, polymeric flavonoids, and proanthocyanidins) were calculated from validated food-frequency questionnaires collected every 2–4 y. Depression was defined as physician- or clinician-diagnosed depression or antidepressant use and was self-reported in response to periodic questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to examine associations. Results: A total of 10,752 incident depression cases occurred during a 10-y follow-up. Inverse associations between flavonol, flavone, and flavanone intakes and depression risk were observed. Pooled multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 0.93 (0.88, 0.99), 0.92 (0.86, 0.98), and 0.90 (0.85, 0.96) when comparing the highest (quintile 5) with the lowest (quintile 1) quintiles, respectively, with evidence of linear trends across quintiles (P-trend = 0.0004–0.08). In flavonoid-rich food-based analyses, the HR was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.91) among participants who consumed ≥2 servings citrus fruit or juices/d compared with <1 serving/wk. In the NHS only, total flavonoids, polymers, and proanthocyanidin intakes showed significantly (9–12%) lower depression risks. In analyses among late-life NHS participants (aged ≥65 y at baseline or during follow-up), for whom we were able to incorporate depressive symptoms into the outcome definition, higher intakes of all flavonoid subclasses except for flavan-3-ols were associated with significantly lower depression risk; flavones and proanthocyanidins showed the strongest associations (HR for both: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.90). Conclusions: Higher flavonoid intakes may be associated with lower depression risk, particularly among older women. Further studies are needed to confirm these associations.

Background: Clinical practice focuses on the primary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) through the modification and pharmacological treatment of elevated risk factors. Prediction models based on established risk factors are available for use in the primary prevention setting. However, the prevention of risk factor development through healthy lifestyle behaviors, or primordial prevention, is of paramount importance to achieve optimal population‐wide CV health and minimize long‐term CVD risk. Methods and Results: We developed a lifestyle‐based CVD prediction model among 61 025 women in the Nurses’ Health Study and 34 478 men in the Health Professionals Follow‐up Study, who were free of chronic disease in 1986 and followed for ≤24 years. Lifestyle factors were assessed by questionnaires in 1986. In the derivation step, we used the Bayes Information Criterion to create parsimonious 20‐year risk prediction models among a random two thirds of participants in each cohort separately. The scores were validated in the remaining one third of participants in each cohort. Over 24 years, there were 3775 cases of CVD in women and 3506 cases in men. The Healthy Heart Score included age, smoking, body mass index, exercise, alcohol, and a composite diet score. In the validation cohort, the risk score demonstrated good discrimination (Harrell's C‐index, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71, 0.74 [women]; 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76, 0.79 [men]), fit, and calibration, particularly among individuals without baseline hypertension or hypercholesterolemia. Conclusions: The Healthy Heart Score accurately identifies individuals at elevated risk for CVD and may serve as an important clinical and public health screening tool for the primordial prevention of CVD.

Abstract Background: There is increasing evidence that elevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with reduced survival for women with breast cancer. However, the underlying reasons remain unclear. We conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate a possible causal role of BMI in survival from breast cancer. Methods: We used individual-level data from six large breast cancer case-cohorts including a total of 36 210 individuals (2475 events) of European ancestry. We created a BMI genetic risk score (GRS) based on genotypes at 94 known BMI-associated genetic variants. Association between the BMI genetic score and breast cancer survival was analysed by Cox regression for each study separately. Study-specific hazard ratios were pooled using fixed-effect meta-analysis. Results: BMI genetic score was found to be associated with reduced breast cancer-specific survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive cases [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.11, per one-unit increment of GRS, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.22, P = 0.03). We observed no association for ER-negative cases (HR = 1.00, per one-unit increment of GRS, 95% CI 0.89–1.13, P = 0.95). Conclusions: Our findings suggest a causal effect of increased BMI on reduced breast cancer survival for ER-positive breast cancer. There is no evidence of a causal effect of higher BMI on survival for ER-negative breast cancer cases.