Development of a Trajectory Model for the Analysis of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Abstract

To study stratospheric water vapor, a new trajectory model was created. The model is built from first principles specific to stratospheric motion and can run on any gridded dataset, making it more versatile than current solutions. The design of a new model was motivated by measurements of elevated stratospheric water vapor, which in situ isotopic measurements have determined to be tropospheric in origin. A moist stratosphere has substantial feedbacks in the climate system including radiative, chemical, and biological effects. Additionally, elevated stratospheric water vapor is theorized as an important coupling in the historical transition to the Eocene, 56 million years ago, as well as emergence from the Eocene 40 million years ago. This transition mirrors modern climate change, both in surface temperature and carbon dioxide increase. However, the historical transition became much more extreme and settled to a state of warm temperatures from the equator to the poles with little variation in between. The lack of latitudinal gradient in temperature is associated with a moist stratosphere, which provides additional motivation for thoroughly understanding the effects of adding water vapor to the stratosphere in a climatological context. The time evolution of water vapor enhancements from convective injection is analyzed by initializing trajectories over satellite-measured water vapor enhancements. The model runs show water vapor concentrations that remain elevated over the background concentrations for several days and often over a week, which is of the timescale that warrants concern over increased halogen catalyzed ozone loss and the subsequent risk to public health. By analyzing stratospheric winds during the summer months over North America using normalized angular momentum, a pattern of frequent stratospheric anticyclonic activity over North America emerges as a unique feature of the region. This provides a mechanism for the modeled persistent elevated water vapor and validates observations. In a climate like today's with increasing surface radiative forcing, the magnitude and frequency of convective injection may increase, with dramatic consequences on the climate system and human health.