The Big One: Understanding Risk in an Uncertain World.

Abstract

In today’s unstable nuclear multipolar world, issuing threats —both physical and verbal—has become central feature of strategic interactions between nuclear-armed states. "In a nuclear world filled with noise, policymakers often struggle to discern which threats are real and require urgent attention, and which are merely posturing or signaling." This thesis develops and explores a risk-based framework that might help policy makers gain much needed clarity. The framework is applied in this thesis specifically to decipher threats that the Russian Federation has emanated from 2014 to 2024 to determine which are the threats that require focus. This framework draws from risk assessment models and resilience-based regulation in the business world to identify threats, assess situations, and determine appropriate responses. It evaluates whether the threat places the current status quo at risk, or if the status quo has been redefined, potentially increasing levels of risk. Finally, it identifies the triggers necessary for re-evaluation—an essential process for understanding, quantifying, and managing business risks.