Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

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Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

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Title: Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications
Author: Ruberry, Michael Edward
Citation: Ruberry, Michael Edward. 2013. Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications. Doctoral dissertation, Harvard University.
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Abstract: In this thesis I offer new results on how we can acquire, reward, and use accurate predictions of future events. Some of these results are entirely theoretical, improving our understanding of strictly proper scoring rules (Chapter 3), and expanding strict properness to include cost functions (Chapter 4). Others are more practical, like developing a practical cost function for the [0, 1] interval (Chapter 5), exploring how to design simple and informative prediction markets (Chapter 6), and using predictions to make decisions (Chapter 7).
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