An Absolute Risk Model to Identify Individuals at Elevated Risk for Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population

View/ Open
Author
Klein, Alison P.
Lindström, Sara
Mendelsohn, Julie B.
Steplowski, Emily
Arslan, Alan A.
Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas
Gallinger, Steven
Gross, Myron
Helzlsouer, Kathy
Holly, Elizabeth A.
Jacobs, Eric J.
LaCroix, Andrea
Li, Donghui
Mandelson, Margaret T.
Olson, Sara H.
Petersen, Gloria M.
Risch, Harvey A.
Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z.
Zheng, Wei
Amundadottir, Laufey
Albanes, Demetrius
Allen, Naomi E.
Bamlet, William R.
Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine
Bracci, Paige M.
Canzian, Federico
Clipp, Sandra
Cotterchio, Michelle
Duell, Eric J.
Elena, Joanne
Gaziano, J. Michael
Goggins, Michael
Hallmans, Göran
Hassan, Manal
Hutchinson, Amy
Kooperberg, Charles
Kurtz, Robert C.
Liu, Simin
Overvad, Kim
Palli, Domenico
Patel, Alpa V.
Rabe, Kari G.
Shu, Xiao-Ou
Slimani, Nadia
Tobias, Geoffrey S.
Van Den Eeden, Stephen K.
Vineis, Paolo
Virtamo, Jarmo
Wactawski-Wende, Jean
Wolpin, Brian M.
Yu, Herbert
Yu, Kai
Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne
Chanock, Stephen J.
Hoover, Robert N.
Hartge, Patricia
Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.
Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072311Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Klein, A. P., S. Lindström, J. B. Mendelsohn, E. Steplowski, A. A. Arslan, H. B. Bueno-de-Mesquita, C. S. Fuchs, et al. 2013. “An Absolute Risk Model to Identify Individuals at Elevated Risk for Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population.” PLoS ONE 8 (9): e72311. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072311.Abstract
Purpose We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer. Patients and Methods Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates. Results: Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84–2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19–1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m2) (OR: 1.26 [1.09–1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13–2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40–2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20–2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10–1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97–2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19–1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10–1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18–1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk. Conclusion: Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors.Other Sources
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3772857/pdf/Terms of Use
This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAACitable link to this page
http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:11876999
Collections
- HMS Scholarly Articles [18278]
- SPH Scholarly Articles [6399]
Contact administrator regarding this item (to report mistakes or request changes)