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dc.contributor.authorAguiar, Mark
dc.contributor.authorGopinath, Gita
dc.date.accessioned2014-03-24T20:23:59Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.identifier.citationAguiar, Mark, and Gita Gopinath. 2007. Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend. Journal of Political Economy 115(1): 69-102.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-3808en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:11988098
dc.description.abstractEmerging market business cycles exhibit strongly countercyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and “sudden stops” in capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies. Nevertheless, we show that a standard model characterizes both types of markets. Motivated by the frequent policy regime switches observed in emerging markets, our premise is that these economies are subject to substantial volatility in trend growth. Our methodology exploits the information in consumption and net exports to identify the persistence of productivity. We find that shocks to trend growth—rather than transitory fluctuations around a stable trend—are the primary source of fluctuations in emerging markets. The key features of emerging market business cycles are then shown to be consistent with this underlying income process in an otherwise standard equilibrium model.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEconomicsen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of Chicago Pressen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1086/511283en_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleEmerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trenden_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionVersion of Recorden_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Political Economy -Chicago-en_US
dash.depositing.authorGopinath, Gita
dc.date.available2014-03-24T20:23:59Z
dc.identifier.doi10.1086/511283*
workflow.legacycommentsFLAG3 Gopinath. Per Sherpa Romeo, we can archive the publisher's version. http://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/0022-3808/en_US
dash.contributor.affiliatedGopinath, Gita


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