Real-Time Influenza Forecasts during the 2012–2013 Season

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Real-Time Influenza Forecasts during the 2012–2013 Season

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dc.contributor.author Shaman, Jeffrey en_US
dc.contributor.author Karspeck, Alicia en_US
dc.contributor.author Yang, Wan en_US
dc.contributor.author Tamerius, James en_US
dc.contributor.author Lipsitch, Marc en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2014-07-07T17:02:18Z
dc.date.issued 2013 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Shaman, Jeffrey, Alicia Karspeck, Wan Yang, James Tamerius, and Marc Lipsitch. 2013. “Real-Time Influenza Forecasts during the 2012–2013 Season.” Nature communications 4 (1): 10.1038/ncomms3837. doi:10.1038/ncomms3837. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3837. en
dc.identifier.issn 2041-1723 en
dc.identifier.uri http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:12406607
dc.description.abstract Recently, we developed a seasonal influenza prediction system that uses an advanced data assimilation technique and real-time estimates of influenza incidence to optimize and initialize a population-based mathematical model of influenza transmission dynamics. This system was used to generate and evaluate retrospective forecasts of influenza peak timing in New York City. Here we present weekly forecasts of seasonal influenza developed and run in real time for 108 cites in the United States during the recent 2012–2013 season. Reliable ensemble forecasts of influenza outbreak peak timing with leads of up to 9 weeks were produced. Forecast accuracy increased as the season progressed, and the forecasts significantly outperformed alternate, analog prediction methods. By Week 52, prior to peak for the majority of cities, 63% of all ensemble forecasts were accurate. To our knowledge, this is the first time predictions of seasonal influenza have been made in real time and with demonstrated accuracy. en
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.relation.isversionof doi:10.1038/ncomms3837 en
dc.relation.hasversion http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3873365/pdf/ en
dash.license LAA en_US
dc.title Real-Time Influenza Forecasts during the 2012–2013 Season en
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.description.version Version of Record en
dc.relation.journal Nature communications en
dc.date.available 2014-07-07T17:02:18Z

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