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dc.contributor.authorCiverolo, Kevin
dc.contributor.authorHogrefe, Christian
dc.contributor.authorLynn, Barry
dc.contributor.authorKlein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen
dc.contributor.authorKu, Jia-Yeong
dc.contributor.authorSolecki, William
dc.contributor.authorCox, Jennifer
dc.contributor.authorSmall, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorRosenzweig, Cynthia
dc.contributor.authorGoldberg, Richard
dc.contributor.authorKnowlton, Kim
dc.contributor.authorKinney, Patrick
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-17T14:14:16Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.identifier.citationCiverolo, Kevin, Christian Hogrefe, Barry Lynn, Joyce Rosenthal, Jia-Yeong Ku, William Solecki, Jennifer Cox, et al. 2007. Estimating the Effects of Increased Urbanization on Surface Meteorology and Ozone Concentrations in the New York City Metropolitan Region. Atmospheric Environment 41, no. 9: 1803–1818.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1352-2310en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:17462973
dc.description.abstractLand use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg−1, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O3 levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O3 levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherElsevier BVen_US
dc.relation.isversionofdoi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.10.076en_US
dc.relation.hasversionhttp://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ci01000b.htmlen_US
dash.licenseMETA_ONLY
dc.subjectModels-3/CMAQen_US
dc.subjectMM5en_US
dc.subjectAir pollution meteorologyen_US
dc.subjectO3en_US
dc.subjectLand use changeen_US
dc.titleEstimating the Effects of Increased Urbanization on Surface Meteorology and Ozone Concentrations in the New York City Metropolitan Regionen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionVersion of Recorden_US
dc.relation.journalAtmospheric Environmenten_US
dash.depositing.authorKlein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen
dash.embargo.until10000-01-01
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.10.076*
dash.authorsorderedfalse
dash.contributor.affiliatedKlein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen


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