Knowing one's future preferences: A correlated agent model with Bayesian updating

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Knowing one's future preferences: A correlated agent model with Bayesian updating

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Title: Knowing one's future preferences: A correlated agent model with Bayesian updating
Author: Bas, Muhammet Ali; Signorino, C. S.; Whang, T.

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: Bas, M. A., C. S. Signorino, and T. Whang. 2013. “Knowing One’s Future Preferences: A Correlated Agent Model with Bayesian Updating.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 26 (1) (May 2): 3–34. doi:10.1177/0951629813482054.
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Abstract: We generalize two classes of statistical sequential incomplete information games: (1) those resembling typical signaling games, in which a single agent represents each player, allowing for information to be revealed about future play; and (2) those in which each player is represented by a set of independent agents, where moves do not reveal private information. The generalized model we develop, the Correlated Agent Model, relies on a parameter, ρ, which denotes the correlation between two agents’ private information, i.e. the extent to which a player knows the future private component of her preferences. The independent agent and single agent models are special cases, where ρ=0 and ρ=1, respectively. The model also allows 0 < ρ < 1, a class of games which have not yet been considered. We apply the model to crisis bargaining and demonstrate how to estimate ρ, as well as parameters associated with utilities.
Published Version: doi:10.1177/0951629813482054
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Policy Articles, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#OAP
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:22547789
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