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dc.contributor.authorMunafo, Marcus R.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPfeiffer, Thomasen_US
dc.contributor.authorAltmejd, Adamen_US
dc.contributor.authorHeikensten, Emmaen_US
dc.contributor.authorAlmenberg, Johanen_US
dc.contributor.authorBird, Alexanderen_US
dc.contributor.authorChen, Yilingen_US
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Braden_US
dc.contributor.authorJohannesson, Magnusen_US
dc.contributor.authorDreber, Annaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-04T18:15:27Z
dc.date.issued2015en_US
dc.identifier.citationMunafo, Marcus R., Thomas Pfeiffer, Adam Altmejd, Emma Heikensten, Johan Almenberg, Alexander Bird, Yiling Chen, Brad Wilson, Magnus Johannesson, and Anna Dreber. 2015. “Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations.” Royal Society Open Science 2 (10): 150287. doi:10.1098/rsos.150287. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150287.en
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703en
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:23845346
dc.description.abstractThe 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, and enable individuals to trade ‘bets’ on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society Publishingen
dc.relation.isversionofdoi:10.1098/rsos.150287en
dc.relation.hasversionhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4632515/pdf/en
dash.licenseLAAen_US
dc.subjectresearch evaluationen
dc.subjectprediction marketen
dc.subjectresearch excellence frameworken
dc.titleUsing prediction markets to forecast research evaluationsen
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionVersion of Recorden
dc.relation.journalRoyal Society Open Scienceen
dash.depositing.authorChen, Yilingen_US
dc.date.available2015-12-04T18:15:27Z
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsos.150287*
dash.contributor.affiliatedChen, Yiling


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