Geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the North Anatolian fault

DSpace/Manakin Repository

Geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the North Anatolian fault

Citable link to this page

 

 
Title: Geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the North Anatolian fault
Author: DeVries, Phoebe Maher; Krastev, Plamen; Meade, Brendan J.

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: DeVries, Phoebe M. R., Plamen G. Krastev, and Brendan J. Meade. 2016. “Geodetically Constrained Models of Viscoelastic Stress Transfer and Earthquake Triggering Along the North Anatolian Fault.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 17 (7) (July): 2700–2716. Portico. doi:10.1002/2016gc006313.
Full Text & Related Files:
Abstract: Over the past 80 years, 8 MW > 6.7 strike-slip earthquakes west of 40° longitude have ruptured the North Anatolian fault (NAF) from east to west. The series began with the 1939 Erzincan earthquake in eastern Turkey, and the most recent 1999 MW = 7.4 Izmit earthquake extended the pattern of ruptures into the Sea of Marmara in western Turkey. The mean time between seismic events in this westward progression is 8.5 ± 11 years (67% confidence interval), much greater than the timescale of seismic wave propagation (seconds to minutes). The delayed triggering of these earthquakes may be explained by the propagation of earthquake-generated diffusive viscoelastic fronts within the upper mantle that slowly increase the Coulomb failure stress change ( math formulaCFS) at adjacent hypocenters. Here we develop three-dimensional stress transfer models with an elastic upper crust coupled to a viscoelastic Burgers rheology mantle. Both the Maxwell (ηM = 4 × 1018−1 × 1019 Pa s) and Kelvin (ηK = 1 × 1018−1 × 1019 Pa s) viscosities are constrained by studies of geodetic observations before and after the 1999 Izmit earthquake. We combine this geodetically constrained rheological model with the observed sequence of large earthquakes since 1939 to calculate the time evolution of math formulaCFS changes along the North Anatolian fault due to viscoelastic stress transfer. Apparent threshold values of mean math formulaCFS at which the earthquakes in the eight decade sequence occur are between ∼0.02 to ∼3.15 MPa and may exceed the magnitude of static math formulaCFS values by as much as 177%. By 2023, we infer that the mean time-dependent stress change along the northern NAF strand in the Marmara Sea near Istanbul, which may have previously ruptured in 1766, may reach the mean apparent time-dependent stress thresholds of the previous NAF earthquakes.
Published Version: doi:10.1002/2016GC006313
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:30353763
Downloads of this work:

Show full Dublin Core record

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

 
 

Search DASH


Advanced Search
 
 

Submitters