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dc.contributor.authorCampbell, John
dc.contributor.authorMankiw, Gregory
dc.date.accessioned2009-06-26T19:16:14Z
dc.date.issued1987
dc.identifier.citationCampbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987. Are output fluctuations transitory?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4): 857-880.en
dc.identifier.issn0033-5533en
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3122545
dc.description.abstractAccording to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one's forecast of output in, say, five or ten years. Our examination of quarterly postwar United States data leads us to be skeptical about this implication. The data suggest that an unexpected change in real GNP of 1 percent should change one's forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEconomicsen
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherMIT Pressen
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884285en
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleAre Output Fluctuations Transitory?en
dc.relation.journalQuarterly Journal of Economicsen
dash.depositing.authorCampbell, John
dc.identifier.doi10.2307/1884285*
dash.contributor.affiliatedMankiw, N
dash.contributor.affiliatedCampbell, John


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