Stock Returns and the Term Structure
MetadataShow full item record
CitationCampbell, John Y. 1987. Stock returns and the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics 18, no. 2: 373-399.
AbstractIn monthly U.S. data for 1959–1979 and 1979–1983, the state of the term structure of interest rates predicts excess stock returns, as well as excess returns on bills and bonds. This paper documents this fact and uses it to examine some simple asset pricing models. In 1959–1979, the data strongly reject a single-latent-variable specification of predictable excess returns. There is considerable evidence that conditional variances of excess returns change through time, but the relationship between conditional mean and conditional variance is reliably positive only at the short end of the term structure.
Citable link to this pagehttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3207699
- FAS Scholarly Articles