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Now showing items 1-10 of 32
On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating ...
The Unintended Consequences of Successful Resource Mobilization: Financing Development in Vietnam
(United Nations Development Programme and the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, 2011)
The total amount of development finance generated by Vietnam has been exceptionally high from all significant sources using all standard measures of comparison. However, there are many potential unintended consequences of ...
A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2011)
Two decades ago, many people had drawn a lesson from the 1980s: Japan's variant of capitalism was the best model. Other countries around the world should and would follow it. Japan's admired institutions included relationship ...
Funding Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Financial Sector Reform in Vietnam and China
(United Nations Development Programme and Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, 2009)
Although there is considerable debate among economists as to the impact of financial sector development on economic growth, empirical evidence indicates a strong, direct link between the two. A recent comprehensive review ...
Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications
(Oxford University Press, 2011)
The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased ...
Politically Feasible Emission Target Formulas to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
A new climate change treaty must plug three gaps: the absence of emission targets extending far into the future, the absence of participation by the United States, China, and other developing countries, and the absence of ...
Making Room for China in the World Economy
(American Economic Association, 2010)
The Future of Convergence
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart’s timely comic novel “Super Sad True Love Story” (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision ...
The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
It is striking how often countries with oil or other natural resource wealth have failed to grow more rapidly than those without. This is the phenomenon known as the Natural Resource Curse. The principle is not confined ...
Country Diversification, Product Ubiquity, and Economic Divergence
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Countries differ markedly in the diversification of their exports. Products differ in the number of countries that export them, which we define as their ubiquity. We document a new stylized fact in the global pattern of ...