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Now showing items 1-10 of 13
On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating ...
Funding Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Financial Sector Reform in Vietnam and China
(United Nations Development Programme and Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, 2009)
Although there is considerable debate among economists as to the impact of financial sector development on economic growth, empirical evidence indicates a strong, direct link between the two. A recent comprehensive review ...
Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications
(Oxford University Press, 2011)
The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased ...
Making Room for China in the World Economy
(American Economic Association, 2010)
Empirical Confirmation of Creative Destruction from World Trade Data
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)
We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a ...
Country Diversification, Product Ubiquity, and Economic Divergence
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Countries differ markedly in the diversification of their exports. Products differ in the number of countries that export them, which we define as their ubiquity. We document a new stylized fact in the global pattern of ...
Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
The characteristics that distinguish most developing countries, compared to large industrialized countries, include: greater exposure to supply shocks in general and trade volatility in particular, procyclicality of both ...
Environmental Effects of International Trade
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009)
The report surveys the state of our knowledge regarding the effects of trade on the environment. A central question is whether globalization helps or hurts in achieving the best tradeoff between environmental and economic ...
Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Prices of most agricultural and mineral commodities rose strongly in the past decade, peaking sharply in 2008. Popular explanations included strong global growth (especially from China and India), easy monetary policy (as ...
How Good Politics Results in Bad Policy: The Case of Biofuel Mandates
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
Biofuels have become big policy and big business. Government targets, mandates, and blending quotas have created a growing demand for biofuels. Some say that the U.S. biofuels industry was created by government policies. ...