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A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions, thereby exacerbating the business cycle. This problem has especially ...
How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011)
Fiscal and monetary policy each has a role to play in mitigating the volatility that stems from the large trade shocks hitting commodity-exporting countries. All too often macroeconomic policy is procyclical, that is, ...
On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2012)
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating ...
The Unintended Consequences of Successful Resource Mobilization: Financing Development in Vietnam
(United Nations Development Programme and the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, 2011)
The total amount of development finance generated by Vietnam has been exceptionally high from all significant sources using all standard measures of comparison. However, there are many potential unintended consequences of ...
A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2011)
Two decades ago, many people had drawn a lesson from the 1980s: Japan's variant of capitalism was the best model. Other countries around the world should and would follow it. Japan's admired institutions included relationship ...
Funding Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Financial Sector Reform in Vietnam and China
(United Nations Development Programme and Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, 2009)
Although there is considerable debate among economists as to the impact of financial sector development on economic growth, empirical evidence indicates a strong, direct link between the two. A recent comprehensive review ...
If The Banks Are Doing So Well, Why Can’t I Get A Loan? Regulatory Constraints to Financial Inclusion in Indonesia
(Wiley-Blackwell, 2011)
Indonesia’s financial sector has two paradoxes: 1) Indonesia has been a global leader in microfinance for
the past 25 years, but access to microfinance services is declining; and 2) Indonesia’s commercial banks
are liquid, ...
Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves
(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University., 2012-05-08)
It is conventional wisdom that it is possible to reduce exposure to indoor air pollution, improve health outcomes, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the rural areas of developing countries through the adoption of ...
Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications
(Oxford University Press, 2011)
The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased ...
Politically Feasible Emissions Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations
(Oxford University Press, 2012)
A new climate change treaty must address three current gaps: the absence of emissions targets extending far into the future; the absence of participation by the United States, China, and other developing countries; and the ...