Fresh air in the 21st century?
Author
Prather, Michael
Gauss, Michael
Berntsen, Terje
Isaksen, Ivar
Sundet, Jostein
Bey, Isabelle
Brasseur, Guy
Dentener, Frank
Derwent, Richard
Stevenson, David
Grenfell, Lee
Hauglustaine, Didier
Horowitz, Larry
Lawrence, Mark
von Kuhlmann, Rolf
Muller, Jean-Francois
Pitari, Giovanni
Rogers, Helen
Johnson, Matthew
Pyle, John
Law, Kathy
van Weele, Michiel
Wild, Oliver
Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.
Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016285Metadata
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Prather, Michael, Michael Gauss, Terje Berntsen, Ivar Isaksen, Jostein Sundet, Isabelle Bey, Guy Brasseur, et al. 2003. “Fresh Air in the 21st Century?” Geophysical Research Letters 30 (2) (January). Portico. doi:10.1029/2002gl016285.Abstract
Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of −4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.Terms of Use
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