Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

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Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

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Title: Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models
Author: Bas, Muhammet Ali
Citation: Bas, Muhammet, Curtis S. Signorino, and Robert W. Walker. 2008. Statistical backwards induction: A simple method for estimating recursive strategic models. Political Analysis 16, no. 1: 21–40
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Abstract: We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manner analogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the technique produces consistent parameter estimates
and show how to calculate consistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicate Leblang’s (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial markets and government responses to these attacks.
Published Version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpm029
Other Sources: http://rww.wustl.edu/pdf/BSW2006.pdf
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3351715
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