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dc.contributor.authorSpirling, Arthur P
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-30T15:24:40Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.identifier.citationSpirling, Arthur. 2007. "Turning Points" in the Iraq conflict: Reversible jump Markov chain monte carlo in political science. The American Statistician 61(4): 315-320.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0003-1305en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3425854
dc.description.abstractWe consider and explore structural breaks in a day-by-day time series of civilian casualties for the current Iraq conflict: an undertaking of potential interest to scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics. We re- view Bayesian change-point techniques already used by political methodologists before advocating and briefly describing the use of reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to solve the estimation problem at hand. We find evidence of four change points, all associated with increasing violence, approximately contemporaneous with some important state building events. We conclude with a discussion of avenues for future research.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipGovernmenten_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Statistical Associationen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1198/000313007X247076en_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.subjectpolitical methodologyen_US
dc.subjectsectarian violenceen_US
dc.subjectchange pointsen_US
dc.title"Turning Points" in the Iraq Conflict: Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Political Scienceen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalAmerican Statisticianen_US
dash.depositing.authorSpirling, Arthur P
dc.date.available2009-11-30T15:24:40Z
dc.identifier.doi10.1198/000313007X247076*
dash.contributor.affiliatedSpirling, Arthur


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