Measuring Business Cycle Time

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Measuring Business Cycle Time

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Title: Measuring Business Cycle Time
Author: Stock, James H.
Citation: Stock, James H. 1987. Measuring business cycle time. Journal of Political Economy 95(6): 1240-1261.
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Abstract: The business cycle analysis of Burns and Mitchell and the National Bureau of Economic Research presumed that aggregate economic variables evolve on a time scale defined by business cycle turning points rather than by months or quarters. Do macroeconomic variables appear to evolve on an economic rather than a calendar time scale? Evidence presented here suggests that they do. However, the estimated economic time scales are only weakly related to business cycle time scales, providing evidence against the view underlying traditional business cycle analysis.
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