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dc.contributor.authorMurray, Eleanor Jane
dc.contributor.authorRobins, James M.
dc.contributor.authorSeage, George R.
dc.contributor.authorLodi, Sara
dc.contributor.authorHyle, Emily Parker
dc.contributor.authorReddy, Krishna Podditur
dc.contributor.authorFreedberg, Kenneth Alan
dc.contributor.authorHernan, Miguel Angel
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-10T17:22:45Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifierQuick submit: 2018-01-04T20:25:56-0500
dc.identifier.citationMurray, Eleanor J., James M. Robins, George R. Seage, Sara Lodi, Emily P. Hyle, Krishna P. Reddy, Kenneth A. Freedberg, and Miguel A. Hernán. 2017. “Using Observational Data to Calibrate Simulation Models.” Medical Decision Making (November 15): 0272989X1773875. doi:10.1177/0272989x17738753.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0272-989Xen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:34623033
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Individual-level simulation models are valuable tools for comparing the impact of clinical or public health interventions on population health and cost outcomes over time. However, a key challenge is ensuring that outcome estimates correctly reflect real-world impacts. Calibration to targets obtained from randomized trials may be insufficient if trials do not exist for populations, time periods, or interventions of interest. Observational data can provide a wider range of calibration targets but requires methods to adjust for treatment-confounder feedback. We propose the use of the parametric g-formula to estimate calibration targets and present a case-study to demonstrate its application. METHODS: We used the parametric g-formula applied to data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration to estimate calibration targets for 7-y risks of AIDS and/or death (AIDS/death), as defined by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention under 3 treatment initiation strategies. We compared these targets to projections from the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model for treatment-naïve individuals presenting to care in the following year ranges: 1996 to 1999, 2000 to 2002, or 2003 onwards. RESULTS: The parametric g-formula estimated a decreased risk of AIDS/death over time and with earlier treatment. The uncalibrated CEPAC model successfully reproduced targets obtained via the g-formula for baseline 1996 to 1999, but over-estimated calibration targets in contemporary populations and failed to reproduce time trends in AIDS/death risk. Calibration to g-formula targets improved CEPAC model fit for contemporary populations. CONCLUSION: Individual-level simulation models are developed based on best available information about disease processes in one or more populations of interest, but these processes can change over time or between populations. The parametric g-formula provides a method for using observational data to obtain valid calibration targets and enables updating of simulation model inputs when randomized trials are not available.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSAGE Publicationsen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1177/0272989X17738753en_US
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29141153en_US
dash.licenseOAP
dc.subjectHIVen_US
dc.subjectagent-based modelen_US
dc.subjectcalibrationen_US
dc.subjectg-formulaen_US
dc.titleUsing Observational Data to Calibrate Simulation Modelsen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.date.updated2018-01-05T01:26:00Z
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalMedical Decision Makingen_US
dash.depositing.authorHyle, Emily Parker
dc.date.available2017
dc.date.available2018-01-10T17:22:45Z
dash.funder.awardR01 AI042006/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United Statesen_US
dash.funder.awardK01 DA042687/DA/NIDA NIH HHS/United Statesen_US
dash.funder.awardK01 HL123349/HL/NHLBI NIH HHS/United Statesen_US
dash.funder.awardP30 AI060354/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United Statesen_US
dash.funder.awardR01 AI073127/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United Statesen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/0272989X17738753*
workflow.legacycommentscat.complete cfr.complete auth.collectionen_US
dash.authorsorderedfalse
dash.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0043-4901en_US
dash.contributor.affiliatedHernan, Miguel
dash.contributor.affiliatedMurray, Eleanor
dash.contributor.affiliatedRobins, James
dash.contributor.affiliatedReddy, Krishna
dash.contributor.affiliatedLodi, Sara
dash.contributor.affiliatedHyle, Emily
dash.contributor.affiliatedFreedberg, Kenneth
dash.contributor.affiliatedSeage, George
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0043-4901


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