The Economic Value of Novel Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis Vaccines
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Silva, Sachin Amrendra
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CitationSilva, Sachin Amrendra. 2020. The Economic Value of Novel Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis Vaccines. Doctoral dissertation, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
AbstractDespite nearly a century long search, a vaccine against Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis – two of the oldest known human diseases, remain beyond grasp. I developed an accounting scheme to capture the full public health value of each vaccine, which to date, has remained unquantified. I then estimated it on behalf of two international organizations, who are custodians of related global health sector strategies.
For the herpes simplex vaccine, using a Cost-of-Illness approach, I estimated that genital herpes in 90 low and middle-income countries can contribute to at least US$2.25 billion in economic losses in 2017. The consumption value of quality of life and disability losses add at least US$60.11 billion and US$0.11 billion, respectively. Incident HIV cases attributable to incident HSV-2 infections, contribute US$2.89 million in ART-related costs and US$432,166 in productivity costs additionally. A vaccine capable of reducing incidence of genital herpes by 50 percent, can reduce at least US$1.12 billion of the economic losses, and US$0.11 billion and US$4.91 billion of the consumption value of disability and quality of life losses, respectively.
For TB, using a Full-Income approach, I estimated that TB mortality can give rise to US$580 billion in welfare losses, in 120 countries in 2018. From 2020 to 2050, welfare losses grow to US$17.50 trillion. If the End TB mortality target is met in 2030, US$13.15 trillion (75.17 percent) can be averted. If the target is met in 2045, US$10.19 trillion of the US$17.50 trillion (58.23 percent) can be averted. The cost of not meeting the End TB target until 2045 (what I designated as the ‘Cost of Inaction’) is US$2.96 trillion.
By introducing a vaccine similar to the M72/AS01E candidate vaccine, in India, US$910 billion to US$2.23 trillion in welfare savings are attainable. The lower bound represents savings if introduced in 2030, to populations aged 18 to 49 years; the upper bound, if introduced in 2020, to all individuals latently infected. Estimates of the economic gains, when organized using the accounting scheme that I developed, can serve as an instrument for establishing global priority on vaccines.
Citable link to this pagehttps://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37365687