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dc.contributor.advisorAtun, Rifat
dc.contributor.advisorBloom, David
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Sachin Amrendra
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-16T08:46:12Z
dash.embargo.terms2021-11-01
dc.date.created2020-11
dc.date.issued2020-10-01
dc.date.submitted2020
dc.identifier.citationSilva, Sachin Amrendra. 2020. The Economic Value of Novel Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis Vaccines. Doctoral dissertation, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
dc.identifier.urihttps://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37365687*
dc.description.abstractDespite nearly a century long search, a vaccine against Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis – two of the oldest known human diseases, remain beyond grasp. I developed an accounting scheme to capture the full public health value of each vaccine, which to date, has remained unquantified. I then estimated it on behalf of two international organizations, who are custodians of related global health sector strategies. For the herpes simplex vaccine, using a Cost-of-Illness approach, I estimated that genital herpes in 90 low and middle-income countries can contribute to at least US$2.25 billion in economic losses in 2017. The consumption value of quality of life and disability losses add at least US$60.11 billion and US$0.11 billion, respectively. Incident HIV cases attributable to incident HSV-2 infections, contribute US$2.89 million in ART-related costs and US$432,166 in productivity costs additionally. A vaccine capable of reducing incidence of genital herpes by 50 percent, can reduce at least US$1.12 billion of the economic losses, and US$0.11 billion and US$4.91 billion of the consumption value of disability and quality of life losses, respectively. For TB, using a Full-Income approach, I estimated that TB mortality can give rise to US$580 billion in welfare losses, in 120 countries in 2018. From 2020 to 2050, welfare losses grow to US$17.50 trillion. If the End TB mortality target is met in 2030, US$13.15 trillion (75.17 percent) can be averted. If the target is met in 2045, US$10.19 trillion of the US$17.50 trillion (58.23 percent) can be averted. The cost of not meeting the End TB target until 2045 (what I designated as the ‘Cost of Inaction’) is US$2.96 trillion. By introducing a vaccine similar to the M72/AS01E candidate vaccine, in India, US$910 billion to US$2.23 trillion in welfare savings are attainable. The lower bound represents savings if introduced in 2030, to populations aged 18 to 49 years; the upper bound, if introduced in 2020, to all individuals latently infected. Estimates of the economic gains, when organized using the accounting scheme that I developed, can serve as an instrument for establishing global priority on vaccines.
dc.description.sponsorshipPublic Health
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dash.licenseLAA
dc.subjectHerpes Simplex
dc.subjectVaccines
dc.subjectTuberculosis
dc.subjectGenital Herpes
dc.subjectFull Public Health Value
dc.subjectValue Proposition
dc.subjectM72/AS01E
dc.titleThe Economic Value of Novel Herpes Simplex and Tuberculosis Vaccines
dc.typeThesis or Dissertation
dash.depositing.authorSilva, Sachin Amrendra
dash.embargo.until2021-11-01
dc.date.available2020-10-16T08:46:12Z
thesis.degree.date2020
thesis.degree.grantorHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
thesis.degree.grantorHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
thesis.degree.levelDoctoral
thesis.degree.levelDoctoral
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Public Health (DrPH)
thesis.degree.nameDoctor of Public Health (DrPH)
dc.contributor.committeeMemberResch, Stephen
dc.type.materialtext
thesis.degree.departmentPublic Health
thesis.degree.departmentPublic Health
dash.identifier.vireo
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8630-3736
dash.author.emailsachin.silva@gmail.com


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