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dc.contributor.authorDiwan, Ishac
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-18T16:20:03Z
dc.date.issued2012-04
dc.identifier.citationDiwan, Ishac. “A Rational Framework for the understanding of the Arab Revolutions.” CID Working Paper Series 2012.237, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, April 2012.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37366262*
dc.description.abstractThe paper argues that demise of the autocratic bargain in the Arab world, ushered by the uprisings of 2010-11, has been driven by a split in the ruling class. The bargain authoritarians struck with their societies in the recent decade is best characterized as a repressive regime that relied on a narrow elite base. The paper explores the dynamic factors that have affected this bargain over time, and in particular, the increased autonomy of the middle class, the rise of crony capitalism, the increased popularity of Political Islam among the middle class, and the "indignities" associated with unpopular foreign alliances. The recent political changes are interpreted as the moment when the middle class, traditionally allied with the autocrats, and affected by these latent pull and push factors, preferred to "tip" its support to a transition towards a democratic settlement. The 3-player model I develop is shown to explain the characteristics of the ongoing Arab Spring and of the key future challenges facing the region better than the classical autocratic bargain model.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherCenter for International Development at Harvard Universityen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publicationsen_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleA Rational Framework for the understanding of the Arab Revolutionsen_US
dc.typeResearch Paper or Reporten_US
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalCID Working Paper Seriesen_US
dc.date.available2020-11-18T16:20:03Z


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