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dc.contributor.authorTerzi, Alessio
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-16T23:33:38Z
dc.date.issued2018-02
dc.identifier.citationTerzi, Alessio. “Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Euro Area.” CID Research Fellow and Graduate Student Working Paper Series 2018.88, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, February 2018.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37366609*
dc.description.abstractMacroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain) based on over 200 past macroeconomic adjustment episodes between 1960-2010 worldwide. At its trough, between 2010 and 2015 per capita GDP had contracted on average 11 percentage points more in the Eurozone periphery than in the standard counterfactual scenario. These results are not dictated by any specific country experience, are robust to a battery of alternative counterfactual definitions, and stand confirmed when using a parametric dynamic panel regression model to account more thoroughly for the business cycle. Zooming in on the potential causes, the lack of an independent monetary policy, while having contributed to a deeper recession, does not fully explain the Eurozone’s specificity, which is instead to be identified in a sharper-than-expected contraction in investment and fiscal austerity due to high funding costs. Reading through the overall findings, there are reasons to believe that an incomplete Eurozone institutional setup contributed to aggravate the crisis through higher uncertainty.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherCenter for International Development at Harvard Universityen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/fellow-graduate-student-working-papersen_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleMacroeconomic Adjustment in the Euro Areaen_US
dc.typeResearch Paper or Reporten_US
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalCID Research Fellow and Graduate Student Working Paper Seriesen_US
dc.date.available2020-12-16T23:33:38Z


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