Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorRigden, A. J.
dc.contributor.authorMueller, N. D.
dc.contributor.authorHolbrook, N. M.
dc.contributor.authorPillai, Natesh
dc.contributor.authorHuybers, Peter
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-11T15:54:29Z
dc.date.issued2020-02-18
dc.identifier.citationRigden, A. J, N. D Mueller, N. M Holbrook, N Pillai, and P Huybers. 2020. “Combined Influence of Soil Moisture and Atmospheric Evaporative Demand Is Important for Accurately Predicting US Maize Yields.” Nature Food 1 (2): 127–33.en_US
dc.identifier.issn2662-1355en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37370984*
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the response of agriculture to heat and moisture stress is essential to adapt food systems under climate change. Although evidence of crop yield loss with extreme temperature is abundant, disentangling the roles of temperature and moisture in determining yield has proven challenging, largely due to the limited soil moisture data and the tight coupling between moisture and temperature at the land surface. Here, using well-resolved observations of soil moisture from the recently launched Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, we quantified the contribution of imbalances between atmospheric evaporative demand and soil moisture to maize yield damages in the U.S. Midwest. We show that retrospective yield predictions based on the interactions between atmospheric demand and soil moisture significantly outperform those using temperature and precipitation singly or together. The importance of accounting for this water balance is highlighted by the fact that climate simulations uniformly predict increases in atmospheric demand during the growing season but root-zone soils that are variously drier or wetter. A damage estimate conditioned only on simulated changes in atmospheric demand, as opposed to also accounting for changes in soil-moisture, would erroneously indicate approximately twice the damage. This research demonstrates that more accurate predictions of maize yield can be achieved by using soil moisture data and indicates that accurate estimates of how climate change will influence crop yields requires explicitly accounting for variations in water availability.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipOther Research Uniten_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLCen_US
dc.relationNature Fooden_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-0028-7en_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleCombined Influence of Soil Moisture and Atmospheric Evaporative Demand Is Important for Accurately Predicting US Maize Yieldsen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalNature Fooden_US
dash.depositing.authorHuybers, Peter
dash.waiver2020-01-02
dc.date.available2022-03-11T15:54:29Z
dash.affiliation.otherFaculty of Arts & Sciencesen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s43016-020-0028-7
dash.waiver.reasonHarvard's open access policy is incompatible with the business model for the journal, Nature Food, in which we seek to publish our research.en_US
dash.source.volume1en_US
dash.source.page127-133en_US
dash.source.issue2en_US
dash.contributor.affiliatedPillai, Natesh
dash.contributor.affiliatedHuybers, Peter


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record