Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Reponse to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski

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Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Reponse to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski

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Title: Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Reponse to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski
Author: Beck, Nathaniel; King, Gary ORCID  0000-0002-5327-7631 ; Zeng, Langche

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King, and Langche Zeng. 2004. Theory and evidence in international conflict: A Reponse to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski. American Political Science Review 98(2): 379-389.
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Research Data: http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/LAAYCJJGDS
Abstract: In this article, we show that de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski’s substantive analyses are fully consistent with our prior theoretical conjecture about international conflict. We note that they also agree with our main methodological point that out-of-sample forecasting performance should be a primary standard used to evaluate international conflict studies. However, we demonstrate that all other methodological conclusions drawn by de Marchi, Gelpi, and Gryanaviski are false. For example, by using the same evaluative criterion for both models, it is easy to see that their claim that properly specified logit models outperform neural network models is incorrect. Finally, we show that flexible neural network models are able to identify important empirical relationships between democracy and conflict that the logit model excludes a priori; this should not be surprising since the logit model is merely a limiting special case of the neural network model.
Published Version: doi:10.1017/S0003055404001212
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3965180
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