A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

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A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

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Title: A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data
Author: Katz, Jonathan; King, Gary ORCID  0000-0002-5327-7631

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: Katz, Jonathan, and Gary King. 1999. A statistical model for multiparty electoral data. American Political Science Review 93(1): 15-32.
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Research Data: http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/QIGTWZYTLZ
Abstract: We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how
geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across theparties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage
is predominantly drawn.
Published Version: doi:10.2307/2585758
Other Sources: http://j.mp/1AzCfND
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3992146
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