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dc.contributor.authorShaman, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.authorJeon, Christie Y.
dc.contributor.authorGiovannucci, Edward
dc.contributor.authorLipsitch, Marc
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Michael George
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-23T15:34:34Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.citationShaman, Jeffrey, Christie Y. Jeon, Edward Giovannucci, and Marc Lipsitch. 2011. “Shortcomings of Vitamin D-Based Model Simulations of Seasonal Influenza.” Edited by Michael George Roberts. PLoS ONE 6 (6): e20743. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020743.
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41392101*
dc.description.abstractSeasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH) D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether observed 25(OH) D levels could be used to simulate observed influenza infection rates. Data of mean and variance in 25(OH) D serum levels by month were obtained from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and used to parameterize an individual-based model of influenza transmission dynamics in two regions of the United States. Simulations were compared with observed daily influenza excess mortality data. Best-fitting simulations could reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of influenza; however, these best-fit simulations were shown to be highly sensitive to stochastic processes within the model and were unable consistently to reproduce observed seasonal patterns. In this respect the simulations with the vitamin D forced model were inferior to similar modeling efforts using absolute humidity and the school calendar as seasonal forcing variables. These model results indicate it is unlikely that seasonal variations in vitamin D levels principally determine the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions.
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleShortcomings of Vitamin D-Based Model Simulations of Seasonal Influenza
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionVersion of Record
dc.relation.journalPloS One
dash.depositing.authorGiovannucci, Edward L.::fd8dcb59a5a5859f2a85fabae12a60cf::600
dc.date.available2019-09-23T15:34:34Z
dash.workflow.comments1Science Serial ID 83176
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0020743
dash.source.volume6;6


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