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dc.contributor.authorKopp, Robert
dc.contributor.authorKemp, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorBittermann, Klaus
dc.contributor.authorHorton, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorDonnelly, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.authorGehrels, W. Roland
dc.contributor.authorHay, Carling
dc.contributor.authorMitrovica, Jerry
dc.contributor.authorMorrow, Eric
dc.contributor.authorRahmstorf, Stefan
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-25T17:54:08Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.citationKopp, Robert E., Andrew C. Kemp, Klaus Bittermann, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, W. Roland Gehrels, Carling C. Hay, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Eric D. Morrow, and Stefan Rahmstorf. 2016. “Temperature-Driven Global Sea-Level Variability in the Common Era.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (11): E1434–41. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517056113.
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.issn0744-2831
dc.identifier.issn1091-6490
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41401434*
dc.description.abstractWe assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 +/- 0.1 mm/y (2 sigma) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 +/- 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with similar to 0.2 degrees C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P >= 0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P = 0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8 +/- 1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titleTemperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionVersion of Record
dc.relation.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
dash.depositing.authorMitrovica, Jerry
dc.date.available2019-09-25T17:54:08Z
dash.workflow.comments1Science Serial ID 91421
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1517056113
dash.source.volume113;11
dash.source.pageE1434
dash.contributor.affiliatedMitrovica, Jerry


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