Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorHatchett, Richard J.
dc.contributor.authorMecher, Carter E.
dc.contributor.authorLipsitch, Marc
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-30T11:55:55Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.identifier.citationHatchett, R. J., C. E. Mecher, and M. Lipsitch. 2007. “Public Health Interventions and Epidemic Intensity during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (18): 7582–87. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610941104.
dc.identifier.issn0027-8424
dc.identifier.issn0744-2831
dc.identifier.issn1091-6490
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:41426767*
dc.description.abstractNonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact of such interventions in past pandemics has not been systematically examined. We obtained data on the timing of 19 classes of NPI in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic and tested the hypothesis that early implementation of multiple interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates approximate to 50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (approximate to 20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPls longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dash.licenseLAA
dc.titlePublic health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionVersion of Record
dc.relation.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
dash.depositing.authorLipsitch, Marc::b95f55eb4c57b90cfbcee3171f1156b1::600
dc.date.available2019-09-30T11:55:55Z
dash.workflow.comments1Science Serial ID 90058
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0610941104
dash.source.volume104;18
dash.source.page7582


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record