Democracy and the Fallacy of the Post-Conflict Era in Northern Ireland

Abstract

While Northern Ireland has experienced a period of relative peace since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, entrenched, age-old tensions persist between those of opposing political persuasions, and between those of different religions. Those tensions continue to manifest themselves in ways which disprove the notion that Northern Ireland is in a post-conflict era. Further, demographic shifts, social changes, and external pressures make the status quo in Northern Ireland untenable. Profound uncertainty over Brexit now threatens the structure and foundation of government, and, perhaps of more immediate concern, the devolved local Executive and Assembly of Northern Ireland have collapsed, with little evidence that local government may be restored in the near term. The examination of these issues is pursued through a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating historical perspective, analysis of laws and treaties, political demography, a comparison between major party platforms, and quantitative analysis of voting trends and shifting norms identified through sentiment polling. The conclusions drawn from this research demonstrate that, while Northern Ireland continues to exist in a state of unrest in ways not dissimilar from those of the past, change is now inevitable. New pressures and new challenges will soon force change as Northern Ireland attempts, again, to achieve a truly post-conflict state.