Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review

Abstract

This study (1) critically reviews existing studies of global trends in population, agriculture, and energy with a view toward showing which studies are most useful for which sorts of studies of global environmental change and sustainable development. (2) Synthesizes a single, internally consistent scenario of global changes in population, agriculture, and energy over the next century for use as a "conventional wisdom" reference case for such studies. (3) Creates a number of "surprise-rich" scenarios of world development for use in exploring unconventional, but not impossible, patterns of human activities that might be useful for exploring the outer limits of global environmental change.