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dc.contributor.authorLu, Xi
dc.contributor.authorDeng, Yu
dc.contributor.authorSun, Yaoguang
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Yifan
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Ge
dc.contributor.authorBu, Maoliang
dc.contributor.authorBi, Jun
dc.contributor.authorMcElroy, Michael
dc.contributor.authorWang, Haikun
dc.contributor.authorNielsen, Chris
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-05T09:04:23Z
dc.date.issued2019-07-29
dc.identifier.citationHaikun Wang, Xi Lu, Yu Deng, Yaoguang Sun, Chris P. Nielsen, Yifan Liu, Ge Zhu, Maoliang Bu, Jun Bi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2019. China’s CO2 Peak Before 2030 Implied From Characteristics and Growth of Cities. Nature Sustainability 2: 748–754.en_US
dc.identifier.issn2398-9629en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:42385375*
dc.description.abstractChina pledges to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO2 emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000–2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO2 emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China’s historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13–16 GtCO2 yr−1 between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5–10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEarth and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLCen_US
dc.relationNature Sustainabilityen_US
dash.licenseMETA_ONLY
dc.titleChina’s CO2 Peak Before 2030 Implied From Characteristics and Growth of Citiesen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionVersion of Recorden_US
dc.relation.journalNature Sustainabilityen_US
dash.depositing.authorMcElroy, Michael
dash.waiver2019-06-14
dc.date.available2020-02-05T09:04:23Z
dash.affiliation.otherHarvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciencesen_US
dash.affiliation.otherFAS Harvard-China Projecten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41893-019-0339-6
dc.source.journalNat Sustain
dash.waiver.reasonNature Group journals do no allow open access.en_US
dash.source.volume2;8
dash.source.page748-754
dash.contributor.affiliatedNielsen, Chris
dash.contributor.affiliatedMcElroy, Michael


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