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dc.contributor.authorPeak, Corey
dc.contributor.authorKahn, Rebecca
dc.contributor.authorGrad, Yonatan
dc.contributor.authorChilds, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorLi, Ruoran
dc.contributor.authorLipsitch, Marc
dc.contributor.authorBuckee, Caroline
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-25T16:29:47Z
dc.date.issued2020-03-08
dc.identifier.citationPeak, Corey M., Rebecca Kahn, Yonatan H. Grad, Lauren M. Childs, Ruoran Li, Marc Lipsitch, and Caroline O. Buckee. Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19 (2020)en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:42639310*
dc.description.abstractIndividual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies, particularly for emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To estimate the comparative efficacy of these interventions to control COVID-19, we fit a stochastic branching model, comparing two sets of reported parameters for the dynamics of the disease. Our results suggest that individual quarantine may contain an outbreak of COVID-19 with a short serial interval (4.8 days) only in settings with high intervention performance where at least three-quarters of infected contacts are individually quarantined. However, in settings where this performance is unrealistically high and the outbreak of COVID-19 continues to grow, so too will the burden of the number of contacts traced for active monitoring or quarantine. In such circumstances where resources are prioritized for scalable interventions such as social distancing, we show active monitoring or individual quarantine of high-risk contacts can contribute synergistically to social distancing. To the extent that interventions based on contact tracing can be implemented, therefore, they can help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Our model highlights the urgent need for more data on the serial interval and the extent of presymptomatic transmission in order to make data-driven policy decisions regarding the cost-benefit comparisons of individual quarantine vs. active monitoring of contacts.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.hasversionhttp://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031088v1.article-infoen_US
dash.licenseLAA
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.titleModeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19en_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionAuthor's Originalen_US
dc.date.available2020-03-25T16:29:47Z
dc.identifier.doi10.1101/2020.03.05.20031088
dash.contributor.affiliatedLi, Ruoran
dash.contributor.affiliatedKahn, Rebecca
dash.contributor.affiliatedPeak, Corey
dash.contributor.affiliatedChilds, Lauren
dash.contributor.affiliatedGrad, Yonatan
dash.contributor.affiliatedBuckee, Caroline
dash.contributor.affiliatedLipsitch, Marc


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