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Use of Cumulative Incidence of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 in Foreign Travelers to Estimate Lower Bounds on Cumulative Incidence in Mexico
(Public Library of Science, 2009)
Background: An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When ...
Antiviral Resistance and the Control of Pandemic Influenza
(Public Library of Science, 2007)
Background: The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir), combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest ...
Pneumococcal Capsular Polysaccharide Structure Predicts Serotype Prevalence
(Public Library of Science, 2009)
There are 91 known capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae. The nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence of particular serotypes is relatively stable worldwide, but the host and bacterial factors that maintain these ...
The Severity of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian Analysis
(Public Library of Science, 2009)
Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult ...
What is the Mechanism for Persistent Coexistence of Drug-susceptible and Drug-resistant Strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae?
(The Royal Society, 2009)
The rise of antimicrobial resistance in many pathogens presents a major challenge to the treatment and control of infectious diseases. Furthermore, the observation that drug-resistant strains have risen to substantial ...
Effect of Human Leukocyte Antigen Heterozygosity on Infectious Disease Outcome: The Need for Allele-Specific Measures
(BioMed Central, 2003)
Background: Doherty and Zinkernagel, who discovered that antigen presentation is restricted by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC, called HLA in humans), hypothesized that individuals heterozygous at particular MHC ...
Hedging against Antiviral Resistance during the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Small Stockpiles of an Alternative Chemotherapy
(Public Library of Science, 2009)
Background: The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant ...
Weather-Based Prediction of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria in Epidemic-Prone Regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-Based Prediction Systems Perform Comparably to Early Detection Systems in Identifying Times for Interventions
(BioMed Central, 2004)
Background: Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the ...
Alert Threshold Algorithms and Malaria Epidemic Detection
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2004)
We describe a method for comparing the ability of different alert threshold algorithms to detect malaria epidemics and use it with a dataset consisting of weekly malaria cases collected from health facilities in 10 districts ...
Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms
(BioMed Central, 2004)
Background: Malaria epidemics due to Plasmodium falciparum are reported frequently in the East African highlands with high case fatality rates. There have been formal attempts to predict epidemics by the use of climatic ...