Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting

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Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting

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Title: Estimating the Electoral Consequences of Legislative Redistricting
Author: King, Gary ORCID  0000-0002-5327-7631 ; Gelman, Andrew

Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.

Citation: Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. 1990. Estimating the electoral consequences of legislative redistricting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 85(410): 274-282.
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Abstract: We analyze the effects of redistricting as revealed in the votes received by the Democratic and Republican candidates for state legislature. We develop measures of partisan bias and the responsiveness of the composition of the legislature to changes in
statewide votes. Our statistical model incorporates a mixed hierarchical Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation, requiring simulation along the lines of Tanner and Wong (1987). This model provides reliable estimates of partisan bias and responsiveness along with measures of their variabilities from only a single year of electoral data. This allows one to distinguish systematic changes in the underlying electoral system from typical election-to-election variability.
Published Version: http://pubs.amstat.org/loi/jasa
Other Sources: http://gking.harvard.edu/files/svstat.pdf
Terms of Use: This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA
Citable link to this page: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4455496
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