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dc.contributor.authorGotelli, Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorDorazio, Robert
dc.contributor.authorEllison, Aaron M.
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-21T19:13:16Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.identifier.citationGotelli, Nicholas J., Robert M. Dorazio, Aaron M. Ellison, and Gary D. Grossman. 2010 Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London: series B, biological sciences 356(1558): 3621-3631.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0962-8436en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4677617
dc.description.abstractQuantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. 51 We analyzed two long-term data sets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological data sets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipOther Research Uniten_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherRoyal Societyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofdoi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0262en_US
dash.licenseOAP
dc.subjecttemporal trendsen_US
dc.subjectspecies abundanceen_US
dc.subjectnull modelen_US
dc.subjecthierarchical modelen_US
dc.subjectstream fishesen_US
dc.subjectgrassland insectsen_US
dc.titleDetecting Temporal Trends in Species Assemblages with Bootstrapping Procedures and Hierarchical Modelsen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
dc.description.versionAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.relation.journalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciencesen_US
dash.depositing.authorEllison, Aaron M.
dc.date.available2011-01-21T19:13:16Z
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rstb.2010.0262*
dash.contributor.affiliatedEllison, Aaron


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