Significance Testing as Perverse Probabilistic Reasoning
View/ Open
Author
Note: Order does not necessarily reflect citation order of authors.Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-9-20Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Westover, M. Brandon, Kenneth D. Westover, and Matt T. Bianchi. 2011. Significance testing as perverse probabilistic reasoning. BMC Medicine 9: 20.Abstract
Truth claims in the medical literature rely heavily on statistical significance testing. Unfortunately, most physicians misunderstand the underlying probabilistic logic of significance tests and consequently often misinterpret their results. This near-universal misunderstanding is highlighted by means of a simple quiz which we administered to 246 physicians at two major academic hospitals, on which the proportion of incorrect responses exceeded 90%. A solid understanding of the fundamental concepts of probability theory is becoming essential to the rational interpretation of medical information. This essay provides a technically sound review of these concepts that is accessible to a medical audience. We also briefly review the debate in the cognitive sciences regarding physicians' aptitude for probabilistic inference.Other Sources
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3058025/pdf/Terms of Use
This article is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAACitable link to this page
http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:5358869
Collections
- HMS Scholarly Articles [17922]
Contact administrator regarding this item (to report mistakes or request changes)