Morality constrains the default representation of what is possible Jonathan Phillipsa,1 and Fiery Cushmana aDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 Edited by Barbara H. Partee, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, and approved March 21, 2017 (received for review November 30, 2016) The capacity for representing and reasoning over sets of possi- a graded contrast between default and deliberative judgments bilities, or modal cognition, supports diverse kinds of high-level rendered by a common system. In either event, the aim of the judgments: causal reasoning, moral judgment, language compre- present study is to test for a form of nondeliberative modal cogni- hension, and more. Prior research on modal cognition asks how tion, identify its signature properties, and determine its influence humans explicitly and deliberatively reason about what is pos- on higher-level cognition. sible but has not investigated whether or how people have a Critically, two independent research programs point toward a default, implicit representation of which events are possible. We candidate signature property of the default representation: the present three studies that characterize the role of implicit repre- relevance of prescriptive norms, such as morality and rationality. sentations of possibility in cognition. Collectively, these studies This stands in contrast to prior research on an adult’s deliberative differentiate explicit reasoning about possibilities from default reasoning about the (im)possibility of an event, which shows sen- implicit representations, demonstrate that human adults often sitivity to descriptive norms, such as the likelihood of the event default to treating immoral and irrational events as impossible, occurring (e.g., ref. 12), but not to prescriptive norms (e.g., refs. and provide a case study of high-level cognitive judgments rely- 18 and 19). Thus, for instance, we tend to think “It isn’t possible ing on default implicit representations of possibility rather than for Lewis to open the safe” when it is highly unlikely he will guess explicit deliberation. the combination (a descriptive feature). In contrast, we tend not to think “It isn’t possible for Lewis to take the money” when it modality | high-level cognition | morality | norms | possibility is sitting right in front of him, but belongs to somebody else (a prescriptive feature). Remarkably, however, circumstantial evidence indicates that Human thought often involves alternative possibilities: how less explicit modal representations may be sensitive to both pre-things could have been, might be, or may turn out. In other scriptive and descriptive norms. That is, our default assessment words, it involves modal cognition, a capacity to construct and of Lewis’s possible actions may exclude what would be wrong in reason over sets of nonactual events. Past research demonstrates the same way that it excludes what would be unlikely. a role for modal cognition in assessing causal responsibility (1– One source of evidence comes from studies of young children. 3), making moral judgments (4–6), inferring what others intend Whereas children, much like adults, say that events that violate to communicate (7–9), and much more (10). physical laws cannot happen (e.g., eating lightning), young chil- To date, research on modal cognition has not distinguished dren also say that events that violate moral or social norms can- between implicit and explicit representations of possibility. In not happen (e.g., stealing candy) (20–24). Not only do they judge fact, past methods have overwhelmingly asked how we explic- these kinds of immoral events are “impossible,” but also they itly and reflectively represent and reason about different possi- even say that such events would require “magic” (18, 19). bilities. We now know a great deal about how and when people Additionally, some contemporary models of high-level cog- engage in explicit counterfactual reasoning or reasoning about nition in adults argue that the underlying representation of what else would have happened if a given alternative event had occurred (see ref. 11 for a recent review). There is also a small but growing body of research on how human adults deliber- Significance ate and decide whether a given event is possible or impossible (12). In addition, there is an emerging literature on the neural As humans, we think not only about what is, but also what substrates recruited when participants are instructed to engage could be. These representations of alternative possibilities in episodic counterfactual reasoning or simulation of possible support many important cognitive functions, such as predict- future events (13, 14). ing others’ future actions, assigning responsibility for past This research has been important for building an understand- events, and making moral judgments. We perform many of ing of the way that human adults explicitly represent and rea- these tasks quickly and effortlessly, which suggests access son about particular possibilities. But are these same processes to an implicit, default assumption about what is possible. recruited when humans make high-level judgments that are What are the default features of the possibilities that we known to involve representations of possibilities? There is rea- consider? Remarkably, we find a default bias toward rep- son for doubt. Causal and moral judgments, for example, are resenting immoral or irrational actions as being impossible. often made quickly and effortlessly and appear early in human Although this bias is diminished upon deliberative reflection, development (15, 16). Thus, these judgments are unlikely to it is the default judgments that appear to support higher-level rely exclusively on explicit deliberation about, or simulation of, cognition. alternative possibilities. Moreover, deliberative judgments about possibility often provide a poor fit to the patterns of high-level Author contributions: J.P. and F.C. designed research; J.P. performed research; J.P. ana- judgments they supposedly inform (see, e.g., ref. 17 on the dis- lyzed data; and J.P. and F.C. wrote the paper. sociation between causal judgments and explicit counterfactual The authors declare no conflict of interest. reasoning). This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. In light of this, an intriguing possibility is that people rely on Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. a different kind of modal representation—one that is rendered 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: phillips01@g.harvard.edu. quickly and automatically, and is based on a distinctive set of This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10. constraints. This could reflect a dissociable “system” or instead 1073/pnas.1619717114/-/DCSupplemental. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619717114 PNAS | May 2, 2017 | vol. 114 | no. 18 | 4649–4654 PSYCHOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES possibility must be sensitive to both descriptive and prescriptive not significantly affect participants’ judgments of the possibil- norms. This feature has played a critical role, for example, in ity of ordinary events (z =−0.164, P =0.87) or improbable understanding human causal reasoning (25, 26), modality in nat- events (z =−1.056, P =0.291). Although not predicted, partic- ural language (27), and judgments of force and freedom (28), ipants more tended to judge that events that violated physics among others (10). These models do not, however, provide evi- were impossible after deliberating (M =85.22, SD=17.44), dence for how this modal representation is computed. than when forced to answer quickly (M =79.37, SD=15.82), In sum, this evidence suggests that there may be a nondeliber- (z =−6.628, P < 0.001). Critically, however, we found that par- ative and early-emerging form of modal cognition that incorpo- ticipants’ judgments of the possibility of immoral and irrational rates information about both descriptive and prescriptive norms. events were affected by deliberation in the opposite direction. According to this hypothesis, the default representation would They tended to judge that immoral events were impossible support not only judgments of what is “possible,” but also diverse when they were not able to reflectively deliberate (M =37.30, modal judgments concerning what “ought,” “should,” “might,” SD=30.21), but more judged them to be possible after delib- “may,” or “could” be done. Moreover, the default representation erating (M =21.41, SD=31.26), (z =5.423, P < 0.001). Sim- would serve as input to diverse high-level cognitive judgments. ilarly, they tended to judge that irrational events were impos- We pursue these hypotheses in three sets of studies. sible more when they were not able to deliberate (M =42.10, SD=25.89), than after deliberating (M =37.86, SD=30.89), Study 1: Deliberative vs. Default Representations of (z =1.963, P < 0.05) (Fig. 1). Possibility In short, we find evidence that default representations of what To investigate whether there are differences in more and less is possible differ from more reflective representations in that deliberative forms of modal cognition, we began by focusing prescriptive norms selectively constrain the default representa- specifically on judgments of possibility, asking participants to tion of possibility. Moreover, two key contrasts suggest an espe- make judgments of whether various events were possible or cially strong role for moral norms: Judgments of the possibility impossible, while manipulating the amount of time available for of immoral events were more affected by deliberation than those this judgment. These judgments were made in the context of of either improbable events χ2(1)= 28.035, P < 0.001, or irra- some background information, such as i: tional events χ2(1)= 24.937, P < 0.001, despite the fact that all of these events involved clear norm violations. i) Josh is on the way to the airport to catch a flight for a hunting safari in Africa. He leaves with plenty of time to make it there, Study 2: Does This Default Generalize Across Modal but his car breaks down on the highway. Now Josh is sitting in Judgments? his car near a busy intersection and knows he needs to get to airport soon if he is going to catch his flight. Linguistically, different modal auxiliaries (e.g., might vs. ought) are known to select different sets of possibilities (7, 8). All of Participants read six different background contexts, and after these modal auxiliaries are alike, however, in that they select each one they were shown a series of candidate events one at some set of contextually relevant possibilities. This is also true a time. As each event was presented, participants pressed a in nonlinguistic cognition: We think differently about what a key to indicate whether they thought that the event was pos- person could or might do than we do about what they should sible or impossible. Crucially, participants either were forced or ought to do. In all of these cases though, these judgments to make these judgments very quickly (≤1,500 ms) or were require us to reason over the set of events that are represented as asked to reflectively deliberate on the possibility of each event being available in the context. Accordingly, we can ask whether (≥1,500 ms). We used a total of 144 different events, which were distinct modal judgments are supported by distinct default sets designed to fall into five categories: 48 ordinary events that did of possibilities or whether instead they share a common set of not violate any norms, e.g., ii, a; 24 events that violated statisti- default possibilities and become differentiated only after addi- cal norms, e.g., ii, b; 24 events that violated physical laws, e.g., tional processing. ii, c; 24 events that violated moral rules, e.g., ii, d; and 24 events that violated norms of rationality, e.g., ii, e. (The a priori catego- rization of these events was confirmed in independent ratings of the morality, probability, and rationality of each of the events; SI Ordinary Improbable Impossible Immoral Irrational Text, Event Ratings and Fig. S1.) Reflective ii) Is it possible or impossible for Josh to [(a)] hail a taxi at the Speeded intersection, [(b)] fix his car by banging on it, [(c)] teleport 75 himself to the airport, [(d)] sneak onto public transportation, or [(e)] sell his car for a ride to the airport? This paradigm uses judgments of whether an event is possible as an indicator of whether participants represent that event as being available in the context. By changing the amount of time 50 participants have to deliberate, we ask whether (and how) par- ticipants’ representation of the set of available events changes as a result of more or less deliberation. We first used a series of linear mixed-effects models to test 25 whether participants’ judgments of the possibility of the five different kinds of events differed across time pressure/delay conditions (SI Text, Statistical Approach). We observed an effect of whether participants were reflectively deliberating, χ2(1)= 20.653, P < 0.001, and an effect of event-type χ2(4)= 860.48, 0 P < 0.001. Critically, however, these main effects were quali- fied by a deliberation × event-type interaction, χ2(4)= 64.093, Fig. 1. Judgments of impossibility for five different kinds of events when P < 0.001. We decomposed this interaction, using a series of participants made judgments after deliberating (solid bars) or without time generalized linear models. These revealed that deliberation did to deliberate before responding (shaded bars). Error bars indicate ±1 SEM. 4650 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619717114 Phillips and Cushman % of Events Judged Impossible We propose that there is a common mechanism responsible for rapidly constructing a default representation of what is pos- sible, which supports diverse cognitive functions. This proposal predicts that any deviation from the default representation will require additional processing, and thus the selection of different sets of possibilities for different modal judgments is likely the result of more deliberative cognition. This prediction is testable: We can ask whether the correlation between judgments of what a person could do, might do, ought to do, etc., is higher when peo- ple do not have time to reflect (and thus rely more on a default representation of possibility) and lower when people do have time to reflect before making a modal judgment. An obvious alternative prediction is that reducing the amount of time that participants have to respond should increase the noise observed in their responses. This predicts that modal judg- ments will instead be less correlated with one another when they have to be made extremely quickly (compared with when they are made with time to reflect). We hypothesized that this effect would be outweighed by the influence of a common default modal representation. Motivated by the results of study 1, we further hypothesized Fig. 2. Correlation coefficient of each pair of modal questions, either when that the default representation underlying diverse modal judg- participants were forced to answer quickly (left) or when they were given ments would be sensitive to prescriptive norm violations. In other time to reflect before answering (right). words, we hypothesized that under time pressure participants’ judgments of what a person could do, may do, might do, etc., would be sensitive to whether that action is immoral or irrational. culated the correlation between each pair of modal judgments, This common sensitivity to prescriptive norms should thus be first focusing on events where descriptive norms were relevant largely responsible for heightened similarity among the default and then, second, focusing on events where prescriptive norms representations elicited by diverse modals. were relevant. This analysis allows us to ask whether it was the Following the basic procedure introduced in study 1a, we col- presence of one of these kinds of norms that was responsible for lected deliberative vs. nondeliberative judgments of what agents the difference in correlations when participants reflected before may do (study 2a), might do (study 2b), could do (study 2c), answering. ought to do (study 2d), or should do (study 2e). We also included Analyzing these correlations with linear mixed-effects models, judgments of what it is possible for them to do (from study 1). we found an interaction effect between the type of norms that These different modal terms are known to express different kinds were relevant and whether or not participants had time to reflect, of modality (metaphysical, circumstantial, deontic), and the over- χ2(1)= 24.323, P < 0.001. Decomposing this interaction, we all patterns of responses demonstrate that participants tracked first focused on modal judgments made in scenarios for which these differences (SI Text, Differences Across Modal Auxiliaries descriptive norms were primarily relevant (e.g., winning the lot- and Fig. S2). tery). Here, we observed a modest decrease in the correlation Our analyses treat the 144 different events as the primary unit between the modal judgments when participants reflected before of analysis. For each of the six modal judgments, we calculated answering (Mr =0.873, SDr =0.055) from when they answered the proportion of the time that the modal judgment was accepted before reflecting (Mr =0.908, SDr =0.042), t(14)= 5.336, P < vs. rejected for each event, doing so independently for trials when 0.001, d =0.724. Next, we focused on judgments made in sce- participants had time to reflect and when they did not. These narios for which prescriptive norms were relevant (e.g., theft) scores reflect the likelihood that an event will be included in and found a much larger decrease in the correlations between the set of possibilities relevant to each type of modal concept the modal judgments made when participants reflected before (e.g., what should be done, what could be done, and so on). We answering (Mr =0.278, SDr =0.265), compared with when then calculated the correlation between the events’ representa- they answered before reflecting (Mr =0.628, SDr =0.145), tions for each possible pair of different modal judgments, both t(14)= 8.841, P < 0.001, d =1.642 (Fig. 3). A corollary finding when participants were given time to reflect before answering is that deontic modals show less of a difference between delibera- and when they were not. tive and reflective responses than metaphysical or circumstantial As hypothesized, modal judgments were significantly more modals (SI Text, Within-modal correlations). correlated when participants did not have time to reflect (Mr = Together, these analyses indicate that prescriptive norms con- 0.893, SDr =0.060) than when they did (Mr =0.830, SDr = stitute a principal dimension differentiating specific modal con- 0.101), t(14)= 5.131, P < 0.001, d =0.754 (Fig. 2). This finding cepts from their common default. In contrast, the use of descrip- supports the view that participants relied on a common default tive norms appears to be relatively more consistent across representation of the set of available events when answering distinct modal concepts, even upon reflection. This pattern is quickly. By contrast, when participants reflected on each judg- most evident for moral norms. Focusing specifically on the ment, their responses were more strongly dictated by unique fea- immoral events, which clearly distinguish different kinds of tures of each modal concept and thus became less correlated with modal reasoning, we created a correlation matrix of all of the one another. different judgments. This approach revealed that all of the dif- We next asked whether a principal dimension on which default ferent modal judgments were highly correlated when partic- judgments became more similar was sensitivity to prescriptive ipants were not able to reflect (0.558≤ r ≤ 0.919), but were norms. To do this, we divided the events that participants judged not when participants took time to reflect (−0.016≤ r ≤ 0.572) into two categories: those for which descriptive norms were (Fig. 4). A corollary finding is that participants’ nonreflective primarily relevant (the improbable and physically impossible modal judgments were all highly correlated with reflective judg- events) and those for which prescriptive norms were primarily ments of what agents ought to do (rMean =0.465), but not other relevant (the irrational and immoral events). We then again cal- reflective judgments (−0.091< rMean > 0.264). Put simply, when Phillips and Cushman PNAS | May 2, 2017 | vol. 114 | no. 18 | 4651 PSYCHOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES the ordinary, immoral, irrational, or improbable events used pre- viously (ii, a–e), as in iii: iii) Josh calls his father who lives a few states away and tells him about his problem. Not really knowing how to help him, Josh’s father makes a suggestion. His father says Josh could sneak onto public transportation. Participants were then told that, notwithstanding this advice, the agent decided to pursue some specified alternative course of action, as in iv: iv) Josh ignores his father’s suggestion and decides to book the next available flight, even though it is quite expensive. Within each context, the agent was always described as pursuing the same course of action, regardless of the advice given. After reading all of this information, participants were asked whether they agreed or disagreed that the agent was forced to do the action he or she actually pursued, as in v: v) Josh was forced to book the next available flight. Following previous work on judgments of force (28, 32, 33), Fig. 3. Correlation coefficient for each pair of modal judgments either participants should judge the agent to have been forced only if for items where descriptive norms were primarily relevant (Left) or for they believe that there were no other options available to the items where prescriptive norms were primarily relevant (Right). Correlations agent—in other words, if the set of relevant alternative possibil- between modal judgments made without time to reflect are plotted on the ities was empty. Thus, in the context of the specific advice given left-hand side of each panel; correlations between modal judgments made to the agent, participants should agree that the agent was forced after reflecting are plotted on the right-hand side of each panel. only if they did not represent the proposed option as an available possibility. answering quickly, modal judgments become more ought-like Crucially, in all cases, the judgments of force were made with (box in Fig. 4). unlimited time available. Thus, our question is whether deliber- In summary, we have demonstrated thus far that default modal ative judgments of force for each scenario are better predicted judgments show a common sensitivity to both descriptive and by deliberative or speeded judgments of possibility for the same prescriptive norms. In contrast, reflective modal judgments can scenario in study 1. We hypothesized that force judgments would deviate away from this default, allowing for some kinds of modal be best predicted by speeded possibility judgments, reflecting a cognition (e.g., thoughts of what could happen) to focus primar- dominant influence of the default representation of the set of ily on what is physically possible, without regard to immorality or available events. irrationality. To analyze these data, we computed the average agree-ment that the agent was forced to do a given action when the Study 3: Default Modal Representations in High-Level Cognition Existing evidence suggests that the modal representations used in other domains of high-level cognition—for instance causal attribution, language comprehension, and moral judgment— are similar to the default representations identified in studies 1 and 2. For instance, causal judgments of an event are sensitive to the moral status of alternative events (e.g., refs. 25 and 29), which is consistent with the demonstrated role of prescriptive norms in default modal representations. This current evidence is indirect, however, and the role of alternative events in causal cognition remains controversial (e.g., ref. 30). Accordingly, study 3 provides a direct test of the hypothesis that the default rep- resentations of the set of events available in a given context are exported to other cognitive domains. To do this, we used judgments of “force” as a case study. This is an ideal test because empirical (28, 31) and theoretical (32, 33) studies concur that judgments of force rely on representations of alternative possibilities. Put simply, if an agent was “forced” to act in some way, this implies that there was no relevant alterna- tive; and if he or she was not forced, this implies that some alter- native existed. We therefore asked, when people decide whether an agent was forced to do something, do they rely on a set of pos- sibilities more like a deliberative set or instead on the implicit set that we identified in study 1? Participants in this study once again read the six different back- Fig. 4. Graphical depiction of the correlation matrix for speeded and ground contexts used in the previous studies. However, in this reflective modal judgments of events that involved immoral actions. Squares case, the agent asked another person for advice about what to do. within the black box (bottom left) depict correlations of speeded modal This person then directly suggested that the agent pursue one of judgments with reflective judgments of ought. 4652 | www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619717114 Phillips and Cushman alternative proposed was one of the events used in the previ- mark of this default representation is that it tends to exclude ous studies. We then first asked whether participants’ nonreflec- immoral actions. First, we found that time pressure makes peo- tive judgments were predictive of judgments of force in a sim- ple less likely to judge it possible to act immorally or, to a lesser ple linear model and found that they were, F (1, 118)= 46.12, extent, irrationally. Second, we found that this effect is reflected P < 0.001, η2 =0.281 (Fig. 5). Next, we asked whether reflective across diverse modal concepts: what a person ought to do, may or nonreflective judgments of possibility were a better predic- do, could do, should do, or might do. These judgments appear tor of judgments of force by comparing a series of linear mixed- to share a common default basis and become more differenti- effects models. We found that including reflective judgments of ated only after deliberative processing. Finally, as a case study of possibility did not significantly improve a model that already the role of implicit modal cognition in reflective high-level judg- included nonreflective judgments of possibility, χ2(1)= 0.030, ments, we found that default modal judgments are better predic- P =0.863. In contrast, including nonreflective judgments of pos- tors than reflective modal judgments of people’s decisions about sibility did significantly improve a model that already included whether a person was forced to act in a particular way. A medi- reflective judgments of possibility, χ2(1)= 27.640, P < 0.001. ation analysis indicates that, to the extent that we are forced to Thus, above and beyond reflective judgments of what is possible, act morally, it is because our default representation of what is the default representation of possibility is predictive of delibera- possible tends to exclude immoral actions. tive judgments of force. Although all forms of modal cognition involve constructing We next asked whether morality had an effect on judgments and reasoning over sets of possibilities, it is remarkable that they of force [as found in previous work (28, 31)] and whether this apparently begin with a common default template. By analogy, effect was mediated by nonreflective judgments of possibility. all forms of social cognition—whether about in-groups or out- We found that this was the case: Participants judged agents groups, cooperators or competitors—involve reasoning about to be more forced when the proposed alternative was immoral sets of other people, but it would be remarkable to discover that vs. ordinary, t(70)= 7.309, P < 0.001, d =1.827. Moreover, this under time pressure, all forms of social cognition begin with a effect was mediated by nonreflective judgments of possibility, representation of the very same individuals. In modal cognition, 95%CI [0.018, 0.542], P =0.04. A similar pattern of results much like in social cognition, one might have initially thought was also observed for events that involved violations of ratio- that even rapid categorizations of what is possible for a person to nal norms (t(70)= 5.462, P < 0.001, d =1.366; 95%CI [0.045, do and what a person ought to do would depend on separate pro- 0.864], P =0.04). These results fit well with ongoing work that cesses that pick out separate events. After all, most people would offers a semantics for force according to which prescriptive say that it is possible to run a red light at an empty intersection, norms impact the set of actions available to an agent (34). (See but not that one ought to. In contrast to this intuition, our find- SI Text, Study 3b: Can Inferences About Agents’ Desires Explain the ings suggest that it takes time to realize that it is possible to run Impact of Norms on Judgments of Force? for a test of an alterna- a red light. We begin with a default representation of possibil- tive semantics for force that proposes to account for the impact ity that tends to exclude this action, along with other immoral or of norms through inferences about the agents’ desires.) irrational acts. The purpose of this default mechanism is a key area for further Discussion study. One appealing possibility is that the default representation We find evidence for a default representation of what is possi- serves the function of proposing actual candidate actions during ble, i.e., a set of events, specific to a context, that constitutes a decision making—in other words, it helps us to construct a choice starting point for understanding nonactual alternatives. A hall- set (35). It is natural to suppose that screening out immoral or irrational actions from one’s own decision making would tend to be adaptive. Importantly, the default representation we have uncovered bearsastrikingresemblance to thepatternofpossibility judgments observed early in human development (18, 19, 21, 24). In both cases, judgments of possibility are sensitive not only to descrip- tive norms but also to prescriptive ones. The similarity of these patterns presents the intriguing possibility that the modal repre- sentation observed early in development is retained in adult cog- nition alongside a separate later-developing capacity for delibera- tively reasoning about possibilities. Future work should continue to explore this connection directly and ask which other factors serve to constrain both of these representations of possibilities. Finally, it is worth noting a potential connection between our research and the widespread, surprising presence of moral norms in disparate corners of the human mind: e.g., in causal reason- ing and mental state attribution (10, 25, 26, 29, 36). These pro- cesses also involve reasoning over a set of possibilities. Given the present results, an exciting possibility is that morality shapes how we think about many things because it constrains the very possi- bilities that come to mind. Materials and Methods Participants. All participants were recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk (www.mturk.com) through TurkPrime (www.turkprime.com), which was used to prevent repeat participation across the studies. Sample sizes and Fig. 5. Relationship between the implicit representation of possibility and demographic information are as follows: study 1a (judgments of possibility), high-level judgments of whether or not an agent was forced to do a given 498 participants (Mage = 33.85, SDage = 10.82, 233 females); study 1b (event action in six different contexts. Shaded areas represent 95% confidence ratings), 61 participants (Mage = 31.53, SDage = 7.87, 25 females); study 2a intervals. (ought), 301 participants (Mage = 33.40, SDage = 9.87, 147 females); study 2b Phillips and Cushman PNAS | May 2, 2017 | vol. 114 | no. 18 | 4653 PSYCHOLOGICAL AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES (might), 201 participants (Mage = 33.79, SDage = 10.20, 92 females); study 2c implicitModality. Studies 1 a and b and 2 a–e were conducted through Test- (could), 304 participants (Mage = 34.87, SDage = 11.32, 144 females); study able (www.testable.org) and study 3 a and b were conducted in Qualtrics. 2d (may), 200 participants (Mage = 32.80, SDage = 9.21, 86 females); study 2e Stable links to experiments are as follows: study 1 a and b, (possibility) (should), 297 participants (Mage = 34.05, SDage = 9.86, 153 females); study testable.org/t/3111b018 and (event ratings) testable.org/t/31041bbc; study 3 (force judgments), 400 participants (Mage = 38.05, SDage = 12.73, 218 2 a–e, (ought) testable.org/t/31092d3e, (might) testable.org/t/3120b96c, females); and study 3b (desire judgments), 400 participants (Mage = 36.61, (could) testable.org/t/31bbed30, (may) testable.org/t/31f78b37, and (should) SDage = 11.80, 200 females). These studies were approved by the Harvard testable.org/t/317a2d7c; and study 3 a and b, (force) goo.gl/6POVuY and University Institutional Review Board, IRB14-2016, and informed consent (desire) https://goo.gl/30OjG1. was acquired from all participants. Access to Data, Analysis Code, and Materials. All materials used to conduct ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. This research was supported by Grant N00014-14-1- these studies and analyze the results are available at github.com/phillipsjs/ 0800 from the Office of Naval Research. 1. Lewis D (1973) Counterfactuals (Blackwell Publishing, Oxford). 21. Kalish C (1998) Reasons and causes: Children’s understanding of conformity to social 2. Pearl J (2009) Causality (Cambridge Univ Press, New York). rules and physical laws. Child Dev 69:706–720. 3. Gerstenberg T, Tenenbaum JB (2017) Intuitive theories. Oxford Handbook of Causal 22. 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